After a 64-42 shellacking at the hands of a No. 11 Tennessee, Virginia will return to action in the consolation game of the Baha Mar Hoops Championship against No. 22 St. John’s. Coached by former Louisville head coach Rick Pitino, who, notably enough, held a 1-5 record against the Cavaliers in his time in the ACC, the Johnnies (4-1) were on the other end of a double-overtime game-winner by No. 12 Baylor in the earlier semifinal last night. Pitino, only in his second year at St. John’s, has a star-studded group together that looks poised to push for a top-three finish in the Big East. This will be yet another tough matchup for an unproven Virginia roster.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. St. John’s, including game details, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a prediction for Friday night’s matchup.
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) vs. St. John’s Red Storm (4-1)
When: Friday, November 22nd at 7pm ET
Where: Baha Mar Convention Center (2,000) in Nassau, The Bahamas
How to watch: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+
How to listen: SiriusXM 381, SXM App 381 | Virginia Sports Radio Network
All-time series: St. John’s leads 7-1
Last meeting: Virginia defeated St. John’s 68-50 on March 24th, 2013 in Charlottesville in the NIT.
2023-2024: 20-13, 11-9 Big East (5th)
2023-2024: 4-1
St. John’s has some well-balanced early season KenPom ratings — 19th in defensive efficiency and 20th offensively — which suggest that Pitino’s teams have more so improved on the former side of the ball, even with elite scoring/distributing additions in guards Kadary Richmond (8.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Deivon Smith (10.5 PPG, 5.5 APG) joining the party. Baylor simply shot the leather off of the ball last night, having converted 15 of 29 attempts from behind the arc. However, the Johnnies did allow the Bears to capitalize on the offensive glass with 22 points on 16 boards; Virginia, who struggled to rebound against Tennessee, may at least find greener pastures against new personnel.
Let it be known that Pitino’s crew was leading by as much as 18 points in the first half and contained Baylor’s offensive threats, yet the Bears responded with a three-point barrage; ten of Baylor’s 15 threes came in the second half and the two subsequent overtime periods. 18 turnovers didn’t help the Johnnies’ case, either.
The St. John’s eight-man rotation features four portalers (from this offseason) and four returning pieces. Let’s discuss some of the Johnnies’ players to watch and preview the keys to the game for the ‘Hoos.
Players to Watch: junior guards R.J. Luis and Deivon Smith
Pitino has some big guards at his disposal, a stark contrast from the backcourt makeup on his championship-winning roster in 2013. This is unfortunately one of those matchups where a 6’7 Jalen Warley would be highly useful at slowing down opposing guards, with the Johnnies’ 6’7 wing — RJ Luis (17.2 PPG) — a matchup nightmare for a roster lacking a lengthy and disruptive on-ball defender. Now, freshman forward Jacob Cofie has shown flashes of brilliance, but he shouldn’t be tasked with defending a non-big in this matchup. The Johnnies have shown Luis at the four, though, as Pitino has often deferred to small-ball lineups built on speed and shooting around center Zuby Ejiofor (11.2 PPG).
Luis has ascended into a do-it-all role for St. John’s as an improved three-point shooter, consistent rebounder, and slashing threat who provides a mismatch on the wings. Unlike the ‘Hoos, each of the Johnnies’ four guards — Luis, Richmond, Smith, and sophomore Simeon Wilcher (10.0 PPG) — are more than capable of creating their own shot. Attacking mismatches against sophomore forward TJ Power and junior guard Andrew Rohde will likely be a part of Pitino’s gameplan. Virginia’s aforementioned wings were evidently no match for Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier, who finished with 26 points on 50% 3PT.
Smith — a Utah transfer — is yet another lightning-quick guard that sophomore Dai Dai Ames will be responsible for checking. The Kansas State transfer did hold an All-SEC performer in the Vols’ Zakai Zeigler to two points on 11.1% FG last night. Nonetheless, Smith will test Ames with his downhill speed and may have plenty of one-on-one matchups considering the Johnnies’ other threats on the perimeter. It’s entirely possible that the Pack Line confuses a Johnnie offense that likes to go, go, go. It’s possible that their backcourt is thrown off by hedged screens and strong collapses on downhill drives. Most importantly, the defense will have to help early and often on isolation matchups against Power, Rohde, and freshman guard Ishan Sharma.
No longer facing Tennessee, Virginia’s bigs may enjoy a slight advantage over St. John’s in the frontcourt. The Johnnies just allowed Baylor’s Norchad Omier — a 6’7 bruiser forward by way of Miami — to go for 24 points and ten rebounds, and they conceded 16 offensive boards in the process. Virginia’s rebounding was by no means encouraging against Tennessee, but the matchup is a bit less intimidating against a guard-heavy St. John’s. The question of who wins the board battle will play a massive role in this contest.
Sophomore center Blake Buchanan paced a Cavalier frontcourt that scored 15 points against the Vols last night (and freshman Anthony Robinson had four of those in garbage time); Buchanan’s respectable statline of six points and seven rebounds should see a boost tonight, and I’d also love to witness a physical performance from junior forward Elijah Saunders down low. The San Diego State transfer was only one of eight from the field against Tennessee, the nation’s sixth-ranked defensive team according to KenPom. Those interior chances should start to fall against weaker frontcourts. It’s worth keeping an eye on Saunders’ cramping issues, however, which led to him playing sparse minutes in a disastrous second half for Virginia.
If Saunders is limited, does Robinson play any significant minutes? Not yet, I assume, but the freshman’s athleticism is notable on this roster. If Virginia is to win this game, I believe it will come from the improved offensive play of Buchanan. Of course, it would be ideal if junior guard Isaac McKneely replicated his flawless performance against Villanova. However, as defenses key into the ‘Hoos’ primary offensive threat and force others to create their own opportunities, the options need to expand to Buchanan and Saunders, when healthy.
I do worry about the athleticism of this St. John’s offense and their progress defensively. A heartbreaking loss to Baylor will only spur the Johnnies’ motivation to leave Baha Mar with a win under their belt, especially against a Virginia roster attempting to figure out its identity. A cold shooting night from them may be the ‘Hoos’ only hope to steal this one away.
We’re not counting out the possibility of the Cavaliers responding to their humbling loss to the Volunteers on Thursday night by playing inspired basketball to pick up a ranked victory over the Johnnies. But it’s not likely. The more plausible outcome is that Virginia was destined to be outclassed in The Bahamas by this tournament field of talented, athletic, and well-coached teams. UVA gets its offense going a little bit, but St. John’s ultimately pulls away in the second half.
Score prediction: St. John’s 71, Virginia 56
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