We’re continuing on today with our preview of the UW men’s basketball squad as we move on to the players who are most likely to spend time as the secondary ball handlers on the roster.
You can check out part one right here. Also, a reminder that Washington will be hosting their Montlake Madness event this upcoming Tuesday night with scrimmages for both the men’s and women’s basketball teams.
G 6’1 DJ Davis (5th year), Transfer from Butler
2023-24 Stats (per game): 13.5 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.1 stl, 53.6% 2pt, 35.1% 3pt, 95.0% FT
Background
Davis originally committed to UC Irvine out of high school and was a key bench player his first two seasons before moving into the starting lineup as a junior when he averaged 15 points per game on 40.2% three-point shooting. He entered the portal and landed at Butler where he started every game for the Bulldogs who made the NIT.
It shouldn’t exactly be a surprise that Davis’ stats went down a little bit while transitioning from the Big West conference to the Big East (is that sentence a sign of East Coast bias?) His 3-point shooting dipped from about 40% each of the previous two seasons to 35.1% this past year. That included a disappointing 30.4% in games against premium competition.
Playing Style
One sign that Davis has the tools to once again shoot close to 40% from deep is that he led the country in free throw percentage last year making 95 of 100 shots. For his career he’s at 90% on over 300 attempts so that wasn’t a fluke. At the end of games if you are trying to secure a win while the other team fouls, getting the ball in to Davis provides almost a guaranteed 2 points. He made 57/58 from the stripe in conference play.
You would ideally like Davis to be a point guard at 6’1 but that hasn’t been the case throughout his career. He averaged a career high 2.6 assists per game last season with Butler so there’s reason to think he can progress in that aspect of his game. Butler also had PG Posh Alexander who averaged nearly 5 assists per game playing alongside him so Davis wasn’t relied upon to serve in the role of primary ball handler.
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There was reason to think that Davis might have room for growth in that role though. He finished in the 83rd percentile in points per possession last year while running the pick and roll per Synergy Sports shooting 43% from the field.
At the same time, he’s a clearly a much better shooter when he can shoot off the catch. Davis made just 22% of his off-the-dribble 3-pointers last season compared to 38% on catch and shoot and 42% on unguarded attempts. If Davis has his feet set and the ability to shoot in rhythm then he’s a top-tier sniper. If instead he has to put the ball on the floor and still settles for a long-range shot, it’s a disaster for the offense.
Despite all of that, Davis isn’t an Anthony Holland type who does almost nothing but take three-point shots. Davis shot 59% on layups last season which ranks in the 71st percentile and 54% on runners which ranks in the 90th percentile. When Davis drives, as long as he can get to the free throw line without being completely hounded then there’s a good chance his shot is going in the basket.
Davis isn’t exactly an all-star defender as might be expected for someone of his stature. He finished between the 35th and 50th percentile overall each of the last two years in Synergy’s defensive points per possession tracking. If there’s an encouraging sign though it’s that Davis’ numbers were better last season despite playing in a tougher conference and despite opponents shooting a blistering 46% on unguarded jumpers when Davis was the closest defender which has to be considered unlucky and should regress towards the mean.
This past season Davis also had his career high in steal rate but he isn’t known for being a premier ball hawking menace. He only has 3 career blocks but that’s not a surprise for a 6’1 shooting guard.
Expectations for 2024-25
Davis is the closest thing to a proven shooter that there is on this roster which means he is going to play and play a lot. I went through the recent history of 2-guards who started for a power conference team and then transferred to another power conference team and the end result is they usually put up very similar efficiency numbers but with higher usage. That means Davis has a great shot at putting up 15 points per game this season and should be the clear favorite to end up the 2nd leading scorer.
2024-25 Projected Per Game Stats: 33.0 mins, 14.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.7 to, 1.1 stl, 0.0 blk, 50.7% 2pt, 37.3% 3pt, 88.2% FT
*****
G 6’4 Jase Butler (1st year), Freshman, Four-Star, #114 Overall
Background
From someone who played on Butler last year to someone whose last name is Butler.
The 6’4 Jase Butler qualified as a four-star prospect in the 247 Sports composite coming out of The Branson School in San Francisco, CA. He originally committed to Illinois last October. The Illini were the only power conference team recruiting Butler back then as he took visits to Colorado State, Loyola Marymount, and UC Santa Barbara. At the time of his commitment he was ranked 189th in the class and viewed as a bit of a sleeper pickup for the Ilini. His stock steadily rose during his senior season however as he averaged 22.3 points per game and led his team to a league title in Marin County.
Coach Sprinkle prioritized Butler as his first major high school recruiting target bringing him in on an official visit. The assistant coach primarily serving as Butler’s recruiter at Illinois, Chester Frazier, left this offseason and went to West Virginia which helped facilitate Butler’s decision to move on from Illinois.
Expectations for 2023-24
It certainly can happen that a lower rated player ends up better right from the get go than a higher rated one at the same position. Jaylen Nowell ended up way better than Daejon Davis. Keyon Menifield had a better freshman year than Koren Johnson. There’s a chance that Jase Butler is better than Zoom Diallo this year. But the safe money is that Zoom has a more impactful year. And in a season where due to the numbers game I don’t think both are going to see the court unless there’s an injury, that means Butler is the odd man out.
2024-25 Projected Stats: Not a part of the rotation
*****
G 6’5 Mekhi Mason (3th year), Transfer from Rice
2023-24 Stats (per game): 14.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 0.9 stl, 42.2% 2pt, 34.3% 3pt, 68.1% FT
Background
Mason was listed at 6’2 by 247 Sports coming out of HS in Gilbert, AZ at Compass Prep and had no other reported offers other than Rice. He has now been listed at 6’5 on both the UW and Rice rosters so Mason grew a few inches relatively late. He started in all 63 games that he played with the Owls as a SG/SF wing player.
As a true freshman, Mason averaged 9.9 points and 1.9 assists per game on 38.4% 3-point shooting and won AAC freshman of the week 4 times during the season. He was named to the AAC all-freshman team at the end of the season. During his sophomore year he took on increased ball handling responsibilities and saw both his points and assists per game go up to 14.0 and 2.8 respectively while his shooting efficiency dipped a bit.
Playing Style
One thing that Mekhi Mason should be able to add right away is shooting. He has made 36.3% of his career attempts from deep on over 230 tries. In both of his seasons in college he shot over 40% on open catch and shoot jumpers. When Mason is in an off-ball role and has space to fire away then he is an above average shooter.
The problem is that so far in his career he has struggled to add value in many other aspects. Synergy Sports tracking data has Mason shooting just 17% on runners for his career and as a below average finisher at the rim. If a defense manages to run him off the 3-point line then he hasn’t shown the ability to punish them with his shot making.
At least Mason is willing to be physical and drew 4.7 fouls per 40 minutes last season which would’ve ranked 2nd on Washington last year behind only Keion Brooks Jr. Mason is solid once at the line making almost exactly 2/3rds of his career FT attempts but that number is still below what you’d like for an above average 3-point shooter. He only got to do it about 8% of the time for Rice but Mason shot 78% on cuts to the basket (93rd percentile) so a better structured offense that is able to get him the ball with a head of steam will help his numbers a lot.
It’s unlikely that Mason will ever turn into a true point guard option but he has made progress as a ball handler. As a freshman he had an assist rate of 10.8 and a turnover rate of 20.6. In his second season the assist rate nearly doubled to 19.7 and the turnover rate went down to 16.6. Incremental progress in both aspects would help him become a true secondary ball handler.
There are question marks on the defensive end. His block and steal rates are both below average for a shooting guard with decent size. Rice’s defense was atrocious last season (294th nationally) and it’s hard to pin that all on Mason. Again using Synergy data, Mason had the most possessions on the team where he was the nearest defender and ranked in the 19th percentile nationally allowing opponents to score 0.98 points per possession.
Those numbers could be interpreted multiple ways. Either Mason was constantly being picked on by opposing offenses or the Rice coaching staff though Mason was their best option and so consistently picked him to guard the best guard on the opposing team. Regardless, it’s probably not a reasonable expectation for him to come in as a defensive stopper although he’ll certainly have better defensive players around him than he had at Rice.
This past season Rice played 11 games against teams that finished in the top-100 of KenPom including non-con games against tournament teams Houston, Texas, and New Mexico plus Indiana State who made the NIT Finals. That’s a decent sample size against teams of the caliber that UW will face in conference play next year. Mason’s averages in those games were: 11.2 pts, 1.9 ast, 3.6 reb, 2.5 TOs on 39% 2pt, 42% 3pt, 59% FT shooting percentages.
Expectations for 2024-25
Last year the Huskies had the luxury of playing a 6’8 elite shooter as their small forward. This is going to be a smaller team and it seems likely that Mason gets the starting gig in that small forward role with the chance he shifts to the 2 when UW plays bigger. Mason is the least willing passer of Washington’s guards and also the tallest so he should nominally be the 3 most of the time and should shoot better getting to play off the ball much more often. It’s likely that Mason won’t get as many shots as he did with Rice but they should be better quality so his efficiency might not fall off even though the level of competition will increase.
2024-25 Projected Per Game Stats: 30.0 mins, 10.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.3 to, 0.9 stl, 0.3 blk, 43.5% 2pt, 34.4% 3pt, 64.0% FT
