Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen’s heroic fourth-quarter touchdown run on fourth down helped the Bills secure a huge win over the Chiefs. Allen easily led the Bills in rushing yards (55), and Buffalo became the first team to score more than 28 points against Kansas City in 30 games. Allen has just one TD pass over the last two games, but he’s made up for it with his legs (105 rushing yards, two scores). Allen made a couple of nice connections with Amari Cooper too, and he’ll enter Buffalo’s bye as the league’s co-MVP favorite with Lamar Jackson.
Patrick Mahomes was picked off on his first pass attempt, and he now has a 0:5 TD:INT ratio in first quarters this season. Mahomes did toss three touchdowns, but he didn’t run and managed just 5.9 YPA. He continues to rarely throw downfield. Kareem Hunt was stuffed at the goal line and somehow saw zero targets against a Bills’ defense that entered allowing the most targets, catches and receiving yards to running backs. He saw 10 targets last week. Hunt will become a bench stash if/when Isiah Pacheco returns healthy.
Xavier Worthy had 61 yards and a touchdown at the beginning of the second quarter but wasn’t heard from afterward. Still, it was an encouraging performance from the rookie, who led Kansas City with five targets. Travis Kelce had one target at halftime and finished with fewer than 10 yards after averaging 13.3 targets, 10.7 catches and 84.7 receiving yards over his previous three games. It was a disappointing offensive performance by the Chiefs, and the NFL lost its remaining undefeated team.
• James Cook scored two first-half touchdowns but saw just two second-half carries, as Kansas City continued to shut down RBs.
• The Bills remain the only team without a TD pass thrown 20+ yards downfield this season.
• Mahomes was 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
• Jared Goff bounced back from last week’s five-pick performance by throwing for 412 yards and four scores, finishing with a perfect Passer Rating (158.3). He got 14.2 YPA and was fantasy’s QB1 this week despite losing three rushing touchdowns to his running backs and then sitting the final 13 minutes of the blowout. Goff entered leading the NFL in YPA (10.1) against man-coverage (h/t TruMedia), which Jacksonville uses at the league’s fifth-highest rate. The Lions went for it on fourth down up 35-7 and scored a touchdown during their first seven possessions. Detroit had the biggest yardage differential (475!) in a game since 1979.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown secured all 11 targets while catching two touchdowns. He finished as fantasy’s WR1 this week and has recorded a TD catch in eight straight games.
• Jahmyr Gibbs would be fantasy’s RB1 if David Montgomery went down.
• Detroit has recorded a takeaway in an NFL-high 14 straight games.
• Jacksonville possessed the ball just 20 minutes. Mac Jones makes all Jaguars risky fantasy plays.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
• Tua Tagovailoa had his best game of the season, throwing three touchdowns. It was just his second multiple TD game of the year, and he once again failed to throw downfield; Tagovailoa’s average depth of target (5.1 yards) was in the sixth percentile.
• De’Von Achane was tackled at the one-yard line on the opening drive, but he punched in a goal-line score in the fourth quarter.
• Jonnu Smith had a career-high 101 yards and scored two touchdowns.
• Miami became the first team since 2016 to open a game with two eight+ minute drives, but the Dolphins somehow got just 3.8 yards per play in the first half.
• Jakobi Meyers had a tough matchup, and Brock Bowers benefitted by seeing a whopping 16 targets. Bowers recorded a touchdown and the most catches (13) by a rookie tight end in a game in NFL history. Both Smith and Bowers finished as top three fantasy tight ends this week.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba led Seattle in targets (11), catches (10) and receiving yards (110) despite DK Metcalf’s return coming out of the bye. JSN accounted for 49.8% of Geno Smith’s passing yards during his second straight highly encouraging performance. His breakout looks real, but we need the downfield looks to keep coming.
• Smith had an otherwise forgettable outing Sunday, but the QB ended it with a game-winning touchdown run with just 12 seconds left. He benefitted from Nick Bosa leaving during the second half, but Smith improved to 1-5 versus San Francisco during his career.
• Brock Purdy struggled (5.7 YPA), although he did record the longest touchdown run of his career. Purdy has four rushing scores over the last four games, but he’s averaging just 232.3 passing yards with a 4:7 TD:INT ratio over six home games this season. He got 11.0 (!) YPA while averaging 309.4 passing yards at home last year, making his splits even more odd (and less likely to continue). The 49ers have the league’s worst goal-to-go offense, and Christian McCaffrey’s return hasn’t solved the team’s red-zone struggles so far.
• CMC saw 24 opportunities but disappointed while not reaching the end zone again. He hasn’t looked as explosive since returning, but he was also dealing with a left tackle (Trent Williams) playing badly hobbled and a rested Seattle defense coming off a bye. Still, San Francisco’s offense dramatically underperformed while missing George Kittle on Sunday, scoring just 17 points; the 49ers had the second-highest implied team total (27.5 points) this week.
• Jauan Jennings led SF in targets (11), catches (10) and receiving yards (91), also pulling down the team’s lone receiving score. He entered top-five in yards per route run and has taken over the “X” role for an injured Brandon Aiyuk. Jennings should be treated as a weekly top-15 WR — and ranked ahead of Deebo Samuel — moving forward.
• The 49ers have allowed the most points in the final two minutes of games this season. Kyle Shanahan’s inability to change the way he calls games no matter how many fourth-quarter leads he blows has become comical. It’s performance art at this point.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
• Christian Watson led Green Bay with 150 receiving yards, including a terrific late catch. Jordan Love got 15.4 YPA but only attempted 17 passes, which hurt all Packers’ pass catchers.
• Caleb Williams had a career-high 60 rushing yards at halftime, and he took just one sack over the game’s first 62 plays (ending with three). Williams still hasn’t thrown a touchdown (or an interception) since Week 6, but he showed improvement (+6.7% CPOE) and made a nice throw on a late fourth down. Sunday marked the second game in which Williams led a potential game-winning drive that wasn’t. The Bears had a 46-yard field goal attempt blocked as time expired, falling to the Packers for the 11th straight time.
• Roschon Johnson had a goal-line score and replaced D’Andre Swift as the team’s inside runner for a stretch of this game, but Swift responded with a 39-yard TD run.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets
• Anthony Richardson turned in his best game of the season, getting 9.1 YPA (+7.3% CPOE) and producing three touchdowns in the road win. He set career highs in passing yards (272), total yards (304), completion percentage (66.7) and Passer Rating (106.5). Richardson destroyed a defender during his first TD run, and his second won the game with less than a minute left. AR was especially strong in the second half, and there’s no chance the Colts win Sunday if Joe Flacco started. New York’s defense has really fallen since firing Robert Saleh, but Richardson was also missing multiple offensive linemen. Richardson gets a tougher matchup (yet again) against the Lions next week, but he’s back on the fantasy scene as a weekly QB option.
• Jonathan Taylor saw a season-high 24 carries, but he was bottled up and lost two short rushing TDs to his quarterback.
• Breece Hall scored his first touchdowns since Week 7, one via the pass and the other a nice run. He secured all seven targets and produced his best fantasy finish (RB2) of the season. Hall continues to see strong usage, but Aaron Rodgers’ decline has been a major problem — New York also has an NFL-high pass rate (72%) in the red zone this season.
• The Jets opened the game with five straight three-and-outs (technically one was on fourth down) and didn’t record a first down until less than two minutes were left in the first half. New York has just two takeaways over its last six games, and no 3-8 team has made the playoffs since 1990. Is Rodgers really going out like this?
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
• Matthew Stafford destroyed the blitz all day, throwing four touchdowns and posting a 142.7 Passer Rating. He got 10.9 YPA and finished with a CPOE (+10.0%) in the 86th percentile with an aDOT (10.7 yards) in the 85th. Stafford entered as the only QB without a scramble (h/t TruMedia) this season, but he even had a three-yard run Sunday. Stafford is a top-10 fantasy QB when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy.
• Kyren Williams failed to score a touchdown for the third straight game after racking up 10 TDs over his first seven. However, he did reach 5.0 YPC for the first game this season Sunday.
• Kupp secured two TDs, and he made his 69-yarder look easy.
• Nacua had six catches for 117 yards and a touchdown by halftime, but he was held to just six yards afterward. He appeared to get banged up during his terrific touchdown grab. Both Kupp and Nacua finished as top-five fantasy WRs this week.
• Drake Maye threw for a career-high 282 yards and two touchdowns. The rookie’s CPOE (+9.7%) was in the 85th percentile, and he’s going to be a fantasy monster once New England gets him some help. Maye entered leading all quarterbacks in rush yards, scrambles and scramble yards since taking over as New England’s starter.
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos
• Bo Nix recorded the first 300-yard passing game of his career, and he broke the mark with nine minutes remaining during his fourth TD pass of the game. The rookie benefitted from Atlanta’s non-existent pass rush and finished with a career-high 9.3 YPA and a CPOE (+13.4%) in the 93rd percentile. Nix also benefitted from yards after the catch on all of his four TD strikes that mostly came around the line of scrimmage, but it was encouraging to see him trust receivers other than Courtland Sutton. Nix has a 13:2 TD:INT ratio over his last seven contests after recording a 1:4 ratio over his first four games as a pro. Nix was the QB4 in expected fantasy points entering this game, so he’s a legit top-10 option down the stretch.
• Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and fullback Michael Burton all recorded carries before popular waiver wire add Audric Estime did Sunday. Denver OC Joe Lombardi warned us this week the team was using a “hot hand approach” at the position, and Williams was that back Sunday.
• Kirk Cousins has gone back-to-back games without a TD pass for the first time in his career (156 starts). He has an 11:1 TD:INT ratio over three games against the Buccaneers and Cowboys but just a 7:8 ratio over the other eight games this season.
• Darnell Mooney left with a hamstring injury, but he said he’ll be fine after the game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
• Lamar Jackson uncharacteristically struggled, failing to finish as a QB1 for the first week in nearly a full calendar year. Jackson finished with a CPOE (-10.7%) in the 13th percentile, and he fell to 1-4 versus Pittsburgh during his career. He’ll look to bounce back in primetime against the Chargers next Monday night.
• In Jackson’s defense, Zay Flowers dropped a pass deep downfield while wide open late in the fourth quarter (he’d catch a TD later that drive), and Diontae Johnson dropped a touchdown during his revenge game. Moreover, Pittsburgh linebacker Payton Wilson also made arguably the defensive play of the day during his incredible interception.
• Derrick Henry lost a fumble on the opening drive (his first in 538 touches) and was oddly off the field during Baltimore’s crucial failed two-point attempt late in the game. But Henry became just the fourth player in the Super Bowl era to score a touchdown in more than 10 straight games to start a season.
• Justin Tucker missed two field goals in the first quarter, and he’s already missed more this season than he did all last year.
• Russell Wilson disappointed fantasy managers in a pass-funnel matchup, as he turned 36 attempts into just 205 scoreless yards. In Wilson’s defense, George Pickens did his best to turn one catch into an incompletion.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
• Sam Darnold rebounded with a nice fantasy performance, and he burned a corner blitz for a long score to Jordan Addison.
• Aaron Jones had a long run of just five yards on 15 carries, as he was held to 43 YFS. Meanwhile, Cam Akers saw 10 carries and caught a short touchdown.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a 98-yard touchdown catch. The Titans had 93 total yards before the play late in the third quarter, and it marked NWI’s fifth TD catch over the last six games.
• Calvin Ridley’s fantasy managers should look away; he had a 51-yard touchdown catch nullified by an illegal shift penalty.
• Tony Pollard didn’t lose much work to Tyjae Spears, but he was held to 15 yards on nine carries in a tough matchup.
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
• Taysom Hill broke fantasy this week, scoring more points than any other player (including quarterbacks) in a unique role while eligible at tight end. He had lost a fumble inside the five, had thrown an interception, rushed for a score and recorded seven catches all before halftime. Hill added two more rushing touchdowns in the second half, with one during a fourth-down play in the third quarter and the other a 75-yard TD run to ice the game late. Hill’s 138 rushing yards and 10 targets were both career highs.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling pulled down the longest pass play of New Orleans’ season. MVS now has 196 receiving yards and three touchdowns on just seven targets over the last two weeks.
• Jerry Jeudy was a top-five WR this week, while Elijah Moore was top 15. Jeudy’s 89-yard touchdown was the longest completion of Jameis Winston’s career. Cedric Tillman took a backseat, but he also saw eight targets. Winston threw 46 times with an aDOT of 10.1 yards, so he’s absolutely money for Cleveland’s fantasy wideouts.
• Nick Chubb got 4.5 YPC but saw a season-low 11 opportunities in a favorable matchup coming out of Cleveland’s bye. The 35-14 game was 14-14 entering the fourth quarter, so game script wasn’t necessarily to blame.
Stay tuned for Dalton’s SNF breakdown …
