Week 16 Expected Points: Backup RBs ready to lead you to victory

Hello, and welcome to my Week 16 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs

• 50 wide receivers

• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 16, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 15 Expected Points

Jerome Ford (CLE, 6.7 Expected Points)

Jerome Ford’s 6.7 expected points in last week’s loss to the Chiefs won’t turn any heads, but Ford should be in line for a larger workload with Nick Chubb (foot) now out for the season.

During the first six weeks of the season, Ford operated as the Browns’ lead back and was the RB30 in expected fantasy points (59.2). Despite taking a back seat to Chubb after Chubb returned in Week 7, Ford’s 107.7 total PPR points still lead the Browns by a wide margin, as Chubb managed just 65.3 fantasy points in his eight games played.

This week, Ford and the Browns get a Bengals defense that’s currently ranked 31st in points allowed per game (27.6) and that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (27.4) to opposing running backs since Week 10. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is making his first start of the season, also averaged 6.0 running back targets per game in the three starts he made last season, which is great news for the PPR scammers.

Fantasy managers who have been rostering Ford in hopes of his number getting called in a big moment may finally have their chance to deploy him in a plus Week 16 matchup.

Kendre Miller (NO. 6.5 Expected Points)

Alvin Kamara exited Week 15’s game against the Commanders with a groin injury and didn’t return to the field. Kamara’s injury is reportedly more severe than the team initially thought, and the early word is he is unlikely to play in Week 16 against the Packers.

Enter Kendre Miller.

The second-year back played on 26 offensive snaps last week, leading all running backs (including Kamara), and rushed for a season-high 46 yards on nine carries while also running a season-high 14 routes.

Miller, who was drafted by the Saints in the third round of last year’s draft, was once thought to be the eventual replacement for Kamara. Miller’s size (5’11″/220), and pass-catching abilities had him profiling as an every-down back when he left TCU after the 2022 season.

In just 12 games as a pro, Miller has caught 12-of-16 targets for 116 yards while also rushing for 69-286-2 in limited action.

His expected volume alone will have Miller in fringe RB2 territory this week against the Packers, but the Packers have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs (25.2) since Week 11 and have allowed 7.8 targets to them over that span. It’s a situation that feels tailor-made for Miller and one he could flourish in as a Week 16 streaming option.

Wide Receivers

Week 15 Expected Points

Jakobi Meyers (LV, 14.5 Expected Points)

Whether you realize it or not, if you have Jakobi Meyers on your roster, you should probably be starting him. Six Week 12, the expected points leaders at wide receiver look like this:

• Puka Nacua – 79.4 EP

• Malik Nabers – 78.0 EP

• Jakobi Meyers – 72.2 EP

Meyers has seen the third most points among all wide receivers over the last four weeks, and his 45 targets over that span trail only Malik Nabers (46).

Meyers has only one top-24 PPR week over that span, but Meyer’s volume is such that he’s capable of turning in a high-end week any time he is on the field.

This week, Meyers gets a Jaguars defense that’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (39.2) to opposing receivers since Week 10, along with the sixth-most air yards per game (229.8) and second-most yards after catch (76.8) per game.

Meyers is seeing the kind of volume fantasy managers dream of from their receivers. The matchup is great on paper, and Aidan O’Connell is expected to be back under center after missing Week 15’s game with a knee injury.

Demario Douglas (NE, 6.1 Expected Points)

Demario Douglas just missed the cutoff for the above table, but he has an intriguing Week 16 matchup against the Bills. Douglas leads all Patriots receivers in targets (74), receptions (56), receiving yards (503), and receiving touchdowns (2). He also leads the team with a 78.8 percent slot rate.

This week, Douglas and the Patriots get a Bills defense that has struggled to slow slot receivers as of late.

Since Week 11, the Bills have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game when targeted in the slot (131.7) and have allowed 12.7 slot targets per game over that span. The 10.4 YPA the Bills are allowing from the slot ranks fourth-highest in the league.

In 10 games played with Drake Maye, Douglas is averaging 10.0 fantasy points per game and has seen five or more targets in five of nine games since Week 6. Douglas only caught three passes for 11 yards in last week’s loss to the Cardinals, but he did find the end zone in the defeat.

The Patriots should be in a negative game script for much of Sunday’s game against the Bills. In the event they find themselves in comeback mode, I like Douglas as a cheap PPR scam in leagues where you can start 3-4 wide receivers every week.

Tight Ends

Week 15 Expected Points

Brenton Strange (JAC, 21.1 Expected Points)

Sitting atop the tight ends expected points list from Week 15 is Jaguars tight end, Brenton Strange. With Evan Engram ruled out for the season, Strange stepped in to see a career-high 12 targets in Week 15’s loss to the Jets, and walked away with 11 catches for 73 yards and 18.3 PPR points, which was good for the overall TE2 finish on the week.

Last week marked the fifth game Strange has played without Engram, and it was the third game without Engram in which he drew five or more targets. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in four of those five games.

For a position as thin as tight end, it doesn’t take much for somebody to get there, and Strange has been consistent with his fantasy production sans Engram. Over their last five games, the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (15.7), while surrendering the eighth most targets per game (8.8).

Strange has been listed as limited in both practices to start the week, but we don’t need to be concerned about that until the team gives us a legitimate reason to be. If you find yourself desperate for a tight end streaming option in this week’s semi-finals matchup, there are worse plays you can make than Strange.