Week 16 Pulse Check: Unlikely heroes emerging in the fantasy football playoffs, but will it continue?

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It’s nearly time for championship week! We’re done looking forward; instead, we’re and looking at which players can help us right now. Recent weeks have brought forth some big repeat performances from several unsung heroes, but are we bold enough to turn to them during championship week?

Let’s take a look at some unlikely playoff heroes and whether or not they’ll actually save the day when it matters most in Week 17.

No superstar came into 2024 more maligned than Keenan Allen. The odds were not in favor of a 32-year-old who spent his career in California heading to Chicago to join a rookie quarterback, an established wide receiver in DJ Moore and one of the flashiest receivers in the draft in Rome Odunze. The season started off shaky and many expected Allen to be phased out of the offense as the year progressed.

However, the back half of the season has been extremely kind to Allen. Heading into this week, Allen ranked as the overall WR8 and WR13 in half-PPR formats, averaging 15.7 fantasy points per game with three finishes inside the top 15 over the past four games. Understandably, it’s been difficult for fantasy managers to trust him given the overall volatility of Chicago’s offense. Still, these performances have come in tough matchups with Allen serving as a true target hog.

This week, Allen delivered once again with nine receptions on 13 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. Chicago faces Seattle in Week 17. The matchup isn’t particularly favorable through the air and the Seahawks tend to limit passing volume (although both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison had big days against it in Week 16), which could work against Allen. Additionally, Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent, suggesting this will likely be a closer game than fantasy managers would like. We prefer Caleb Williams chasing points. Still, Allen has been reliable and should continue his hot streak, potentially delivering fantasy managers a championship. He’s a strong play in Week 17.

Keenan Allen wasn’t the only standout in the Detroit-Chicago game today. Jameson Williams delivered his best performance of the season, hauling in five receptions on seven targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. It was a bit of a surprising performance given the game was played in Chicago and Jared Goff’s outdoor struggles.

Williams is often labeled as a boom-or-bust player and while there have definitely been some bust games, the back half of his season has been generally stable. That said, we’ve been waiting for one of those signature Jameson Williams boom games, and in Week 16, he finally delivered.

I won’t beat around the bush — Week 17 is concerning for Williams. The matchup is against a San Francisco defense playing for pride and dealing with injuries across the board. Despite those injuries, the 49ers have held strong against the pass — including limiting a Waddle-free Tyreek Hill to just 10.4 fantasy points today. They remain one of the toughest matchups for opposing wide receivers, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position.

Williams is definitely the type of player worth taking a risk on, but beware — this game absolutely profiles as a potential bust week.

I wrote about Jerome Ford in this week’s “Make or Break” article. While Ford was expected to take over as the clear lead back, there were concerns about how productive the Browns offense would be with the change at quarterback to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Despite this, I recommended taking a leap of faith, expecting at least a low-end RB2 floor given the excellent matchup against the Bengals and the lack of recent involvement from D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong.

The results were exactly what I anticipated. Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled, but it didn’t matter because Ford is a big-play machine. He racked up 92 yards on just 11 carries, scored a touchdown and added five receptions for 39 yards. Neither Strong nor Foreman posed any threat to his workload. This backfield clearly belongs to Jerome Ford.

While the Week 17 matchup against Miami isn’t as appealing as Cincinnati, Ford’s receiving upside and explosive playmaking ability make him a solid option once again. He’ll be ranked as a top-24 back and we should start him with confidence.

Spears’ Week 16 performance was a bit of a surprise. We actually discussed Spears in last week’s pulse check, noting that he scored a goal-line touchdown early in the game before Tony Pollard was injured, indicating the Titans’ willingness to potentially split series and use both backs at the goal line.

Sunday, Spears finished with two rushing touchdowns, both in the red zone — one from 11 yards out and another at the goal line late in the game as the Titans played catch-up. Pollard still handled the majority of early-game work and this performance could be another case of the Titans falling behind, with the game script favoring Spears more than Pollard.

Looking ahead to the Week 17 matchup, this game against Jacksonville feels like it could go in countless directions. Neither team is particularly strong. The Jaguars have been operating more competently with Mac Jones at quarterback over the past two weeks but this still profiles as a fairly even matchup.

This is the second matchup between the Titans and Jags this season. When we look back at their Week 14 matchup, with Will Levis at quarterback, it was a low-scoring game that significantly favored Pollard. It’s tough to predict how much has changed in three weeks, especially since Pollard hasn’t played poorly. Spears is a risky flex option that fantasy managers need to approach cautiously. While his past two strong performances may create a sense of trust, there’s a real risk of a low-volume, bust game in Week 17 if the game remains competitive.

It’s fitting that multiple “unlikely heroes” come from the Titans because they truly have been one of the messiest teams in the league. It’s been an underwhelming and disappointing year for Okonkwo, but he’s been on fire over the past two games with 17 receptions on 21 targets. While the lack of touchdowns limits his overall upside, the volume has been enough to carry him. Okonkwo finished as TE7 last week and is currently the TE3 this week through the afternoon games.

Earlier in the season, Okonkwo’s top-10 performances were touchdown-dependent, as volume had been a significant issue. Before Week 15, he had never exceeded four receptions in a game. His recent success could be attributed to favorable matchups, but the switch to Mason Rudolph at quarterback may also be a factor.

The Titans face a generous Jacksonville defense this week. However, in their last matchup against the Jaguars, Okonkwo had just three receptions for eight yards — but that was with Will Levis at quarterback. The Jaguars allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and with Rudolph under center, Okonkwo might have the right setup for another strong fantasy performance.

While there’s risk due to his lack of long-term proven success, tight end floors are incredibly low this season. Okonkwo is worth the risk as long as Rudolph remains the quarterback.

Let’s wrap things up with my favorite player on this list: Bryce Young.

Heading into the season, I predicted Young would take a leap in his second year under Dave Canales, but that prediction looked shaky early on when Young was benched. However, since returning to the starting lineup, he’s looked like a completely different quarterback.

Turnovers remain a concern, though some haven’t been his fault due to an underwhelming receiving corps and a difficult schedule. Despite these challenges, Young has shown significant improvement in accuracy and overall competence, with the added bonus of rushing upside. He’s always been a mobile quarterback rather than a true runner and the increased rushing volume has been a wonderful surprise for his fantasy production. Young has scored a rushing touchdown in three of his past four games.

Great news! Young’s hot streak included a matchup against Tampa Bay, and wouldn’t you know it, Week 17 offers another great opportunity against the Bucs. Tampa has been one of the most generous defenses to opposing quarterbacks, and Young took advantage of that in Week 13 with a QB8 performance, throwing for a season-high 298 yards.

Coming off a big win and a three-touchdown performance against a tough Arizona defense, Young is primed to be a solid streaming option in Week 17. It might feel uncomfortable, but deep leagues dealing with injuries and bad matchups can turn to Young for upside in the league’s most advantageous matchup for QBs.

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