The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Roster Construction Deviations
The prevailing salary allocation blueprint in Week 2 consisted of finding viable value to fit in high-priced studs. Most of the field did so through Jordan Mason and several wide receivers priced below $4,000 on DraftKings, making balanced rosters like the one Low4Sho utilized carry immense leverage on the field. It was a wonky week in which most of the pay-up wide receivers failed due to either game environment issues or injury, with all of CeeDee Lamb (blowout), Justin Jefferson (injury), Amon-Ra St. Brown (game environment), and Cooper Kupp (injury) failing to return viable top-end scores for various reasons. While that won’t happen in most weeks, this roster was able to generate leverage on the field through salary allocation, positioning the roster to leap such a massive portion of the field that was fighting to fit in one of the high-priced receivers on the slate.
Take the Saints Seriously
Here’s a wild statistic: the Saints have scored on every Derek Carr-led possession through two games. And while that level of efficiency will not continue throughout the season, new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has this offense absolutely humming. Furthermore, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed have seen a carry or target on a ridiculous 57.7% of the offensive plays this season. There have been a few instances over the previous three seasons where we had to account for an offense in some way on every roster in play each week (2022 Vikings and 49ers, 2023 Cowboys and 49ers) – the 2024 version of the Saints is quickly approaching that territory. Early in the season, there is often leverage to be had by reacting to changing dynamics found in the league faster than the field, which is a distinct possibility with these Saints moving forward.
Viability of Skinny Primary Stack
A skinny primary stack (quarterback plus one pass-catcher and no bring-back) was on the optimal DFS roster 22.2% of the time over a two-year sample from 2021 to 2022, and yet, the field does not utilize it at that frequency. Not buying into both sides of a matchup goes against standard psychological practices and feels uncomfortable, and humans do not like being uncomfortable. That makes this practice a viable leverage-generating stance to take in most weeks, as are anything with a proven hit rate greater than the utilization rate by the field (quarterback + tight end pairings is another one).
Looking Ahead
De’Von Achane
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel remains one of the better offensive architects in the league and now must design an offense without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa following yet another concussion. When coming up with a plan to maximize the offense with such a massive change as moving from Tagovailoa to Skylar Thompson, McDaniel is likely forced to consider the significant downgrade in downfield passing expected with the new quarterback. Thompson has targeted his running back on almost 32% of his passes during his career. When you then consider Mike McDaniel’s recent comments on Achane, we could see a clear path to seven to nine high upside targets for one of the most dynamic players in the league.
Chris Olave
Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Chris Olave has generated the third highest average separation score through two weeks. He has seen only eight targets, but Derek Carr as attempted just 39 passes in an offense that has been hyper-efficient. While we can’t expect the Saints to score on every possession with Derek Carr on the field, as they have through two games, a higher rate of sustained drives with fewer splash plays should lead to increased pass attempts, and a larger target total for Olave. All the underlying efficiency metrics continue to point towards a looming breakout, which could happen as early as Week 3 against an Eagles defense on a slight downturn in the secondary.
Brock Purdy + George Kittle
Per Jon Jackson on X, George Kittle has played eight games without Deebo Samuel since the start of the 2021 season. In those games, the veteran tight end averages 18.3 PPR points per game while scoring eight touchdowns. Considering the team is also without running back Christian McCaffrey, and the fact the Rams are unlikely to generate organic pressure at a meaningful rate (three total sacks and 20 total hurries through two games), we’re likely to see an increase to Kittle’s route participation through two weeks after the 49ers faced two opponents in the top half of the league in pressure rate. Feel free to tack on both Jordan Mason and Brandon Aiyuk in small field tournaments and cash games in Week 3.
Diontae Johnson
Head coach Dave Canales wasted little time in yanking underperforming starting quarterback Bryce Young, making a change after just two games. That tells me two things: (1) Canales is a no-nonsense coach making a statement in his first look at head coaching duties in the league, and (2) Dave Tepper and the upper management likely want to see who between Canales and Young is better for the franchise moving forward. The thought here is that the offense can be a functioning unit with even median-level quarterback play, which the veteran Andy Dalton brings to the table. Parlay that bet with the player that Canales told us all offseason would be the focal point of the offense in Diontae Johnson. At just $4,900 on DraftKings, Johnson presents a situation that could be the cheapest exposure to double-digit targets on the slate, opening up salary for the remainder of the roster in a way the field is highly unlikely to fully dive into.
