Week 4 Expected Points: Is Roschon Johnson the RB solution in Chicago?

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Running Backs

Week 3 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Aaron Jones

MIN

25.1

0.7

25.8

Jonathan Taylor

IND

21.2

5.3

26.5

Chuba Hubbard

CAR

20.1

7.8

27.9

Kyren Williams

LAR

20

11.6

31.6

David Montgomery

DET

18.5

2.7

21.2

Derrick Henry

BAL

18.4

12

30.4

Breece Hall

NYJ

18.3

0

18.3

Zack Moss

CIN

18

2.7

20.7

Alvin Kamara

NO

17.8

-2.1

15.7

Brian Robinson Jr

WAS

17.4

-6.7

10.7

Devin Singletary

NYG

17

3.8

20.8

Jordan Mason

SF

16.7

-5.9

10.8

Najee Harris

PIT

16.7

-3.1

13.6

Saquon Barkley

PHI

16.5

17.1

33.6

Zach Charbonnet

SEA

16.2

9.5

25.7

De’Von Achane

MIA

15.8

-7

8.8

Carson Steele

KC

15.7

-7.3

8.4

D’Andre Swift

CHI

14.5

-8.3

6.2

Bijan Robinson

ATL

14.1

-0.9

13.2

James Cook

BUF

14

4.7

18.7

Rachaad White

TB

13.9

-5.4

8.5

Travis Etienne

JAC

13

-0.5

12.5

Javonte Williams

DEN

12.9

-4.8

8.1

Josh Jacobs

GB

11.8

-6

5.8

Roschon Johnson

CHI

11.8

-1.6

10.2

JK Dobbins

LAC

11.7

-3.3

8.4

Rico Dowdle

DAL

11.1

-2.5

8.6

Miles Sanders

CAR

10.9

0.1

11.0

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET

10.5

-0.2

10.3

Samaje Perine

KC

10.2

-3.2

7.0

Jerome Ford

CLE

9.9

0.1

10.0

Braelon Allen

NYJ

9

0.8

9.8

Cam Akers

HOU

9

0.9

9.9

Khalil Herbert

CHI

8.9

-8

0.9

Alexander Mattison

LV

8.7

4.7

13.4

Bucky Irving

TB

8.7

2.7

11.4

Cordarrelle Patterson

PIT

8.5

-0.7

7.8

Emanuel Wilson

GB

8.5

8

16.5

Jaleel McLaughlin

DEN

8.5

-0.1

8.4

Ty Johnson

BUF

8.4

5.2

13.6

Chase Brown

CIN

7.3

1.6

8.9

Tony Pollard

TEN

7

-1.1

5.9

Ray Davis

BUF

6.7

2.6

9.3

Tyjae Spears

TEN

6.5

3.6

10.1

Antonio Gibson

NE

6.2

0.5

6.7

Tyrone Tracy Jr

NYG

5.9

0.1

6.0

Jamaal Williams

NO

5.6

-4.7

0.9

James Conner

ARI

5.6

-2.1

3.5

Alec Ingold

MIA

5.5

-1.1

4.4

Justice Hill

BAL

5.5

1.9

7.4

Roschon Johnson (CHI, 11.8 Expected Points)

The Bears running game is atrocious. D’Andre Swift, who was signed to a three-year, $24 million contract this offseason, has rushed for 68 scoreless yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC) and has caught only six passes on 10 targets. Currently the RB27 in expected fantasy points (34.4), Swift’s negative 15.0 fantasy points over expected ranks 114th at the position.

It doesn’t help that the Bears ranked 31st as a team in yards before contact per attempt (0.71 YBCO/ATT), but it’s far easier to replace the starter at running back than it is to replace an entire offensive line.

Enter Roschon Johnson.

The second-year back saw his first offensive touches of the season in Week 3, and rushed eight times for 30 yards while adding another four receptions for 32 yards. His 11.8 expected points ranked 25th at the position on the week, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported earlier this week that Johnson could see an “extended look” in Week 4’s contest against the Rams.

Image 9-27-24 at 6.55 AM.jpeg

Image 9-27-24 at 6.55 AM.jpeg

It’s a risky proposition to bet on this Bears rushing attack as a whole, but the Rams have allowed 24.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. They’ve also allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (177.0) and rank 22nd in YBCO/ATT in their own right (1.85).

Fantasy managers needing a dart throw at running back can consider Johnson based on last week’s usage and his rumored uptick in touches this week.

Tony Pollard (TEN, 7.0 Expected Points)

Tony Pollard saw limited work in Week 3 in the Titans’ 30-14 blowout loss. The Titans’ RB1 rushed six times for 14 yards and caught three passes for another 15 yards — an admittedly brutal display of offense for Pollard and the Titans as a whole.

Despite just 7.0 expected points in the loss, Pollard had weeks of 13.2 and 19.9 expected fantasy points in the Titans’ first two games and is the RB20 in expected fantasy points on the year. He’s also starting down the barrel of a potentially juicy Week 4 matchup against the Dolphins.

Miami’s offense is in shambles with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out at least three more games, and backup Skylar Thompson (chest) is not expected to play in this Monday’s contest. Tyler Huntley, who joined the team after the injury to Tagovailoa, could draw the start — which may actually be the best-case scenario for the Dolphins — but expectations are low for them in this one.

The Dolphins’ defense has also been a favorable run for opposing running backs, as they’ve allowed 28.2 points per game to opposing running backs thus far. Things didn’t go well for Pollard last week, but he had two RB2 finishes to open the year and was the RB13 in Week 1 against the Bears.

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There’s a chance for Pollard and the Titans to have a very positive game script in this one, and he’s still cemented as the team’s RB1. Don’t let Week 3’s flop force you off of him in Week 4.

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Wide Receivers

Week 3 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Malik Nabers

NYG

24.6

3.6

28.2

Rashee Rice

KC

24

5.1

29.1

Diontae Johnson

CAR

22.3

3.9

26.2

Nico Collins

HOU

21.6

-9

12.6

Jauan Jennings

SF

21.2

25.3

46.5

Rome Odunze

CHI

20.4

3

23.4

Amari Cooper

CLE

19.3

8.3

27.6

Courtland Sutton

DEN

18.9

-5.1

13.8

Stefon Diggs

HOU

18.2

1.9

20.1

Marvin Harrison Jr

ARI

17.7

-0.3

17.4

Christian Kirk

JAC

17.1

-1.2

15.9

Garrett Wilson

NYJ

16.8

-2.5

14.3

Jakobi Meyers

LV

16.8

4.4

21.2

DJ Moore

CHI

16.4

-1.2

15.2

Brandon Aiyuk

SF

15.7

-5.9

9.8

DeVonta Smith

PHI

15.5

-0.6

14.9

Demario Douglas

NE

15.5

-0.7

14.8

Drake London

ATL

15.5

3.2

18.7

Davante Adams

LV

15.3

-7.3

8.0

Justin Jefferson

MIN

14.3

5.8

20.1

Tre Tucker

LV

14.3

8.3

22.6

Michael Wilson

ARI

14.2

0.2

14.4

Chris Godwin

TB

14.1

3.2

17.3

Andrei Iosivas

CIN

13.6

2.6

16.2

Brian Thomas Jr

JAC

13.5

-3.7

9.8

Tee Higgins

CIN

13.5

-6.6

6.9

Darnell Mooney

ATL

13.2

1.4

14.6

Amon-Ra St Brown

DET

12.9

7.6

20.5

Ja’Marr Chase

CIN

12.5

17.3

29.8

Wan’Dale Robinson

NYG

12.5

0.6

13.1

Jayden Reed

GB

12.3

-1.4

10.9

Lil’Jordan Humphrey

DEN

12.3

-2.6

9.7

CeeDee Lamb

DAL

12.2

-1.5

10.7

Jerry Jeudy

CLE

12.2

-3.5

8.7

Tyler Lockett

SEA

11.7

-2.1

9.6

George Pickens

PIT

11.6

-0.9

10.7

DeAndre Hopkins

TEN

11.2

8.1

19.3

Tank Dell

HOU

10.7

0.5

11.2

Gabe Davis

JAC

10.4

-6.6

3.8

Brandin Cooks

DAL

10.2

-6.6

3.6

DeAndre Carter

CHI

10.2

-5

5.2

Terry McLaurin

WAS

9.9

10.1

20.0

Chris Olave

NO

9.7

10.9

20.6

DK Metcalf

SEA

9.5

10.9

20.4

Xavier Worthy

KC

9.4

-4.4

5.0

Khalil Shakir

BUF

9.2

10

19.2

Tutu Atwell

LAR

9.2

4.1

13.3

Demarcus Robinson

LAR

9.1

-4.9

4.2

Ladd McConkey

LAC

9

-1.6

7.4

Greg Dortch

ARI

8.9

-2.4

6.5

Michael Wilson (ARI, 14.2 Expected Points)

After catching just three passes for 36 yards through the first two weeks, Michael Wilson surprised with a nine-target outing in Week 3 against the Lions and caught eight passes for 64 yards. Wilson has run the second-most routes (88) of any player in Arizona’s offense, splitting time both outside and in the slot (30.5 percent slot rate).

His Week 4 matchup against the Commanders may be the juiciest he’ll see all season.

We’re still early into the Dan Quinn era in Washington, but the aftershock left by the Ron Rivera is still being felt early on.

Through three weeks, the Commanders’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed per game (29.3) and is 31st in passing yards per game (255.7). The nine touchdown passes they’ve allowed are the most of any team.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense have been dealing in the passing game. Currently sitting on a 635-5-1 line, Murray’s 16 deep attempts (passes of 20-plus air yards) are the third most of any quarterback in the league, trailing only Caleb Williams (19) and Dak Prescott (17). Wilson has seen only two of these targets but hauled in both for 51 scoreless yards.

Tight end Trey McBride (concussion) hasn’t practiced this week and is at serious risk of missing Sunday’s contest. If he’s out, Wilson should see plenty of opportunities in a game that currently has a total of 50.5 on Bet MGM Sportsbook — the highest of any on the Week 4 slate. In deeper leagues where you can start four or five receivers, Wilson is an enticing play, specifically if McBride sits.

Terry McLaurin (WSH, 9.9 Expected Points)

Why not play both sides of this matchup? Terry McLaurin erupted for 20.0 fantasy points in the Commanders’ Week 3 win over the Bengals but was the WR42 in expected fantasy points on the week at 9.9. McLaurin’s 10.1 FPOE in the matchup — which came courtesy of a 55-yard reception in the second quarter and a 27-yard receiving touchdown in the final two minutes of the game — helped carry his 4-100-1 performance on a six-target outing.

McLaurin had an underwhelming first two weeks playing in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal raid offense, and he ranks 31st amongst all receivers in total targets (18), but like Michael Wilson, he also gets a juicy matchup. As a defense, the Cardinals rank 31st in YPA (8.9), and 32nd in quarterback completion percentage (75.3 percent). They’ve also allowed the third-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (114.4) on the year.

Week 3 marked the first time we finally saw McLaurin’s ability to stretch the fieldwork with Jayden Daniels’ highly-touted deep ball. In a game that projects as a potential shootout, McLaurin hooking up with Daniels on another deep pass or two is very much in the cards. Even if that doesn’t come to fruition, he’s the unquestioned WR1 in an offense that is short on receiving talent behind him. Satellite back Austin Ekeler is also unlikely to play in this one after suffering a concussion against the Bengals and getting a short week to clear concussion protocol.

Tight Ends

Week 3 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Cole Kmet

CHI

25.9

-0.2

25.7

Dallas Goedert

PHI

15.8

11.2

27.0

Jake Ferguson

DAL

15.8

-0.3

15.5

Cade Otton

TB

12.8

-1.1

11.7

Tyler Conklin

NYJ

11.9

2.4

14.3

Jordan Akins

CLE

10.1

-3.2

6.9

Josh Whyle

TEN

10

-1.7

8.3

Dalton Kincaid

BUF

9.2

3.9

13.1

Kyle Pitts

ATL

8.9

-1

7.9

Colby Parkinson

LAR

8.7

-3.6

5.1

Brenton Strange

JAC

8.5

0.7

9.2

Noah Fant

SEA

8.4

3.6

12.0

Mike Gesicki

CIN

7.8

0.9

8.7

Brock Wright

DET

7.7

-0.3

7.4

Johnny Mundt

MIN

7.6

-0.4

7.2

Zach Ertz

WAS

7

1.8

8.8

Dalton Schultz

HOU

6.9

-3.8

3.1

Theo Johnson

NYG

6.5

-4.2

2.3

Trey McBride

ARI

6.5

-1

5.5

Austin Hooper

NE

6.4

-3.5

2.9

Pat Freiermuth

PIT

6.4

0.9

7.3

Michael Mayer

LV

6.3

-4.6

1.7

Travis Kelce

KC

6.3

0.7

7.0

Erick All

CIN

6.1

0.1

6.2

Dallas Goedert (PHI, 15.8 Expected Points)

The Eagles’ situation at receiver paved the way for Dallas Goedert to churn out 27.0 fantasy points in their Week 3 win over the Saints. Already down A.J. Brown, the Eagles lost DeVonta Smith to a concussion last week, and both Brown and Smith have yet to practice prior to this article being published on Friday.

There’s a very real chance that the Eagles’ top three receivers in Week 4 are Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson. If this is the case, it will be another wheels-up week for Goedert against the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers have only allowed 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but the only tight end of note they’ve played is Sam LaPorta, who has just eight receptions for 94 yards through three weeks. Goedert played 22 of his 42 snaps from the slot last week, and the Buccaneers have allowed the 10th most receptions in the slot on the year.

Goedert will be a must-start in Week 4 if the Eagles are without their top two receivers.

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 11.9 Expected Points)

Tyler Conklin was one of my favorite late-round tight ends all offseason. He looked like a massive bust through the first two weeks of the season, catching just two passes for 16 yards, but broke out for five catches and 93 yards in Week 3 against the Patriots.

While the receptions haven’t always been there for Conklin, his 94 routes run are good for third-most at his position. Amongst 29 tight ends who have seen eight or more targets, Conklin ranks top 10 in:

  • Yard Per Reception – 15.6 (1st)

  • Yards After Catch per Reception – 6.6 (5th)

  • Average Depth of Target – 8.6 (7th)

He’s now drawing a Week 4 matchup against the Broncos, and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who has allowed just 63 receiving yards this season, per PFF, is expected to spend a lot of time covering Garrett Wilson.

If Surtain puts the clamps on Wilson, Aaron Rodgers will be forced to find other outlets in the passing game. Knowing this, it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise to know that the Broncos are allowing 10.3 points per game to opposing tight ends — a number that would undoubtedly yield a TE1 fantasy week at a position so starved of production.

Fantasy managers in need of help at the position can consider Conklin a viable streaming option in what could be a plus matchup against the Broncos.

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