Week 9 Expected Points: Elijah Moore, Browns WRs ascending

Week 9 Byes: PIT, SF

Hello, and welcome to my Week 9 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs

• 50 wide receivers

• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 9, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 8 Expected Points

Raheem Mostert (MIA, 12.8 Expected Points)

In a game that was competitive throughout and saw De’Von Achane finish as the RB9 in expected points (18.6), Raheem Mostert still saw more than enough work for a shot at a fantasy-viable week.

While his Week 8 outing against the Cardinals was anything but efficient (2.1 YPC), Mostert saw two of his nine carries on the day go for scores and finished the week as the overall RB17 in PPR leagues. Earlier this week, I wrote in my Backfield Report that fantasy managers who start in Week 9 are simply chasing his Week 8 touchdown production. Which I still believe, but that may not be an entirely bad thing.

The Dolphins have been atrocious on offense, with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined, which has resulted in few scoring opportunities. De’Von Achane has only four rush attempts inside the green zone in seven games played this season. Mostert hasn’t fared much better, having seen only two carries in the green zone. However, it’s interesting to note that in his two games since returning from injury, Mostert has earned the only two green zone carries for the Dolphins over that span. His eight red zone rush attempts to Achane’s one also lead the team since Week 7.

Mostert and Achane have only played in four games together this season. In those games, Achane has earned 15.3 opportunities per game to Mostert’s 13.1, with Mostert edging out Achane in carries per game while Achane dominates in targets.

Fantasy managers in need of running back help this week could take a shot on Mostert as a touchdown-dependent RB3 against a Bills team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (27.9) to opposing running backs since Week 4.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 9.8 Expected Points)

This one is not for the faint of heart. If the Steelers weren’t on bye, I would have reserved this spot for Jaylen Warren, but that doesn’t help anybody for Week 9.

The Falcons have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (25.0) since Week 4, and there’s a chance Ezekiel Elliott leads the Cowboys’ dismal rushing attack in Week 9 — putting him barely on the fantasy radar as a desperation play.

Elliott hasn’t been good this season, or for the last several years, for that matter. However, he has three of the team’s four green zone rush attempts this season and their only two touchdown runs from inside their opponent’s five-yard line. In his 10-carry, 34-yard outing against the 49ers, Elliott punched in a one-yard touchdown run for his second score on the season. He finished as the RB30 on the week with 10.8 fantasy points and his 11 opportunities were his most since Week 1.

Elliott’s busy day may have been partly due to Rico Dowdle missing last week with a reported illness, but the veteran running back has been pushing the team for more carries and is averaging 9.0 rush attempts per game over the last two weeks. It never feels good to tout Zeke, but in a week where the Steelers and 49ers are on bye, there could be some room to deploy him as a desperation start.

Wide Receivers

Week 8 Expected Points

Elijah Moore (CLE, 18.5 Expected Points)

A change from Kevin Stefanski to Ken Dorsey as offensive play-caller and from Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston as quarterback worked wonders for the Browns’ offense in Week 8’s win over the Ravens. In their first game under the new duo, the Browns scored a season-high 29 points and posted a season-high 401 total yards of offense. It was just the second time this season they surpassed 300 or more yards in a game.

Winston threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns in the win while funneling targets to his top three receivers, but it was Elijah Moore who wound up leading the team with 12 targets. Moore, who joined the Browns last season, had his best game ever as a Brown, going for a season-high 85 yards while also catching eight passes. Per FantasyPoints.com, Moore’s 34 percent TPRR and 10 first-read targets ranked fifth amongst all receivers in Week 8 (min. 20 routes run).

As a team, the Browns have the fourth-most dropbacks (274) from 11 personnel and are throwing at a 61 percent rate in neutral game scripts. Last week, I touted Cedric Tillman as an emerging fantasy option after he saw 12 targets in Week 8 against the Bengals. Moore’s 12-target outing in Week 8 has put him on the WR4/FLEX radar for Week 9 against the Chargers.

Jalen Coker (CAR, 11.6 Expected Points)

Rookie UDFA Jalen Coker surprised everyone in Week 8 when he caught 4-of-6 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. Coker’s 33 routes run wound up leading all Panthers receivers on the day, while his six targets were second only to Xavier Legette’s seven.

Coker played 28 of his 35 snaps from the slot, per PFF, which could be a bad sign with Adam Thielen likely to return from injury. Thielen has played 73.1 percent of his snaps from the slot this season. With that said, Coker is an interesting stash for fantasy managers hoping to find a viable WR3 late in the season.

For starters, the NFL trade deadline is looming, and while he hasn’t been connected to any trade rumors, I wouldn’t rule out Thielen being on the trading block. Secondly, Coker was a solid prospect coming out of small school Holy Cross.

Unlike we saw last week, Coker, a 6-foot-3, 213-pound receiver who possesses 4.57 speed, played most of his snaps on the outside while in college. He racked up over 2,700 receiving yards in four seasons while scoring 31 touchdowns and went for 109-1950-26 in his last two seasons. If not for his small-school profile, there’s a good chance Coker would have heard his name called on draft day.

The Panthers have been jamming Coker into their lineup over the last month. He’s run 27 or more routes in three of his last four games and popped up for 68 yards on four catches in Week 5. If Thielen doesn’t return in Week 9, Coker could have some upside as a WR4 in deeper leagues against the Saints.

Tight Ends

Week 8 Expected Points

Mike Gesicki (CIN, 13.1 Expected Points)

The Bengals have shown a knack for getting Mike Gesicki more involved in games where Tee Higgins is unavailable.

If you don’t believe me, have a look at the splits courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits app. The “Out of Split” column is where we are focusing our attention.

To put it simply, Gesicki’s usage sans Higgins would be that of a high-end TE1 if extrapolated over a 17-game season, and while we still have one day to go, many are already expecting Higgins to miss Week 9 with the same quad injury that sidelined him in Week 8. In last week’s loss to the Eagles, Gesicki caught 7-of-8 targets for 73 scoreless yards while finishing as the TE12 on the week with 14.3 points.

If Higgins can’t go, Gesicki becomes a solid streaming option against a Raiders defense that ranks 19th against opposing tight ends this season.