What are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Evansville basketball in 2024-25 season?

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EVANSVILLE — If there was a theme for the Evansville men’s basketball program this season, it’s continued positive momentum.

The Aces are less than two weeks from the start of the 2024-25 season and Year 3 under David Ragland. Last year was a needed sign of growth with a 17-18 record, the program’s most wins since 2018, and a victory in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. It was arguably the program’s best campaign in almost a decade.

Momentum can also be fickle in college basketball. Almost half the roster is brand new, and reinforcements are required after losing the entire starting lineup to graduation or transfer. This creates an interesting nexus point for the program.

More: 5 burning questions about Evansville men’s basketball entering 2024-25 season

“This program has evolved in a short time that we’ve been here,” Ragland told The Field of 68 during Missouri Valley Basketball Media Day. “The number of wins that we had when we took over the program…there’s not a ton of people lined up to be a part of that program. You get (players) who get you and believe in you. You build on that.”

Let’s examine what the season could look like, a few players who could break through and the games to watch.

Best case: Compete for the MVC championship

This should be the goal for every Valley program. For the Aces, it may be what your definition is for contending.

During the MVC basketball media day, Ragland said this roster could have three All-Valley-type players. Should such lofty projections come true – possible names would be a mix of Tayshawn Comer, Tanner Cuff, Joshua Hughes and Connor Turnbull – the Aces’ ceiling rises well above their 9th place spot in the preseason MVC poll.

Let’s say the six newcomers make an immediate impact and returners such as Cuff and/or Hughes have a breakthrough. UE would then potentially emerge as a top-five team in the MVC which fits the definition as competing for the title. Bradley appears to be the early favorite, but nothing is set in stone.

“How do you make the game easy?” Ragland said earlier this month. “How are you effective in the things you do? It just takes time. You have to experience it and problem-solve in the moment. I feel like our group did that over the summer.”

More: UE and USI ‘want to play’ a crosstown men’s basketball game. ADs explain why they aren’t.

Worst case: Take a notable step back in Year 3

The Aces took a needed step in a positive direction last season. The worst case this winter? Losing that momentum.

There is intrigue and potential with the new faces. What if they don’t mesh or struggle? What if no one emerges to replace the production left by Ben Humrichous (Illinois), Yacine Toumi (Seton Hall), Chuck Bailey III (Nevada) and others? What if injuries limit the roster? If one or more of these things occur, the outlook takes a dip.

KenPom has a projected record of 14-17. That wouldn’t be a hindrance should the Aces be competitive. But if they dip a notch or two below that mark? UE can’t follow a step forward with two or three steps back.

These could be the Aces’ X-factors in 2024-25

This could go several ways. Three players come to mind for who could elevate the Aces’ potential.

Tayshawn Comer, a 6-1 junior, is likely the starting point guard. He comes from a winning program in high school (Cathedral) and showed potential in his two years at Eastern Kentucky with 7.8 points and 3.0 assists last year. Joshua Hughes, a 6-10 sophomore forward, is a prime candidate to make a year one to year two jump after averaging 6.6 points and 3.9 rebounds off the bench.

Perhaps the biggest X-factor is Connor Turnbull. The 6-10 junior was a 4-star recruit in high school who spent the last two years at Butler and committed to the Bulldogs when Ragland was an assistant. He showed potential as a freshman in limited minutes (8 of 17 from three) but only appeared in nine games last year because of an elbow injury. His ability to stretch the floor offensively and rim protect could add a different dynamic.

Two others to keep an eye on due to their athleticism: Romando Battle II and Gabriel Pozzato.

5 UE basketball games we have circled on the calendar

Tuesday, Nov. 19 at Ohio State, 6 p.m.

The biggest name on the Aces’ nonconference schedule. The Buckeyes won 22 games last year but made a late-season push to earn then-interim coach Jake Diebler the full-time gig. Will be interesting to see how UE fares on the road against a Big Ten opponent.

Tuesday, Dec. 3 at Murray State, 7 p.m.

The Aces’ first conference game is on the road against a preseason top-three team in the Valley. KenPom has the Racers at No. 111 in his preseason ranking. An opportunity for UE to make an early statement.

Saturday, Dec. 7 vs. Western Kentucky, 1 p.m.

The Aces’ top non-conference home game is the start of a multi-year series with WKU. The Hilltoppers advanced to the NCAA Tournament last March with three of their top five scorers returning, including Reitz graduate Khristian Lander.

Tuesday, Jan. 14 at Northern Iowa, 7 p.m.

UE has not won in Cedar Falls, Iowa since 2013. Guess where its only game with UNI is? It will be the second of a two-game visit to Iowa following a game at Drake the previous Saturday.

Saturday, Feb. 8 vs. Bradley, 4 p.m.

The only time the Aces play the MVC preseason favorites is at home in February. UE snapped an 11-game losing streak to Bradley with a 73-70 victory last February. An opportunity for the Aces to show how far they’ve come or still need to go.

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