The penultimate week of the 2024 regular season is here.
The weekend features three games between ranked teams and one of those contests is in the Big 12. No one will mistake the Big 12 for an elite conference this season, but it’s been extremely fun and extremely even. Nine teams are still mathematically alive for the conference title. If you love chaos, you want some upsets over the final two weeks of the season.
BYU and Colorado are tied atop the conference at 6-1 and both head on the road in Week 13. The Cougars are underdogs at third-place Arizona State while Colorado is a slight favorite at a Kansas team that just ended BYU’s undefeated season.
Here’s a look at what to watch in Week 13. (All times are Eastern and all odds are from BetMGM.)
Time: Noon | TV: Fox | Line: Ohio State -13.5 | Total: 51.5
Here’s Indiana’s big test.
The College Football Playoff discussion has been unfairly dominated by Indiana’s undefeated record against the teams on its schedule. The Hoosiers had a weak non-conference slate and, well, a weak Big Ten conference schedule too. Either Michigan or Washington is the best team the Hoosiers have beaten this season.
That conference schedule isn’t Indiana’s fault. And the Hoosiers haven’t scheduled non-conference games like a team needing to post its schedule strength for the College Football Playoff because, well, they haven’t been in playoff contention. After years of being in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, we think the Hoosiers deserved a season where they didn’t have to play all three teams.
Indiana is powered by an efficient passing offense led by fringe Heisman contender Kurtis Rourke and a defense that’s forcing nearly two turnovers per game. DB Amare Farrell has four interceptions while defensive lineman Mikail Kamara has 9.5 sacks.
Ohio State enters the game down two starting offensive linemen following center Seth McLaughlin’s torn Achilles on Tuesday. The Buckeyes have done a fantastic job moving pieces around on the offensive line following left tackle Josh Simmons’ injury. Can they adequately replace the Alabama transfer too?
The Buckeyes are giving up the fewest points per game of any team in college football after allowing just seven points over their last two games. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against Ohio State all season. Indiana’s going to need to score more than 17 to win.
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: Colorado -3 | Total: 59.5
The Buffaloes carry a four-game win streak into Arrowhead Stadium to face a team that just ruined BYU’s undefeated season.
Colorado has scored at least 34 points in each of those wins as Shedeur Sanders is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Sanders is completing 73% of his passes and has already thrown for over 3,200 yards. If Colorado makes the Big 12 title game, he’s got a great chance to throw for over 4,000 yards before the postseason.
It’s a good thing that Sanders is picking opposing defenses apart, because Colorado still can’t run the football. The Buffaloes average just 77 yards per game on the ground as Isaiah Augustave is the team’s leading rusher with 362 yards and four touchdowns.
Kansas isn’t far from being a team with a winning record. The win over BYU was KU’s sixth one-possession game and just the first one the team has won this season. The Jayhawks held BYU to just one TD as the Cougars turned the ball over twice.
QB Jalon Daniels has played better as Kansas has won three of its last four games. But the key to another upset could be RB Devin Neal. Opponents had rushed for more than 100 yards in every game against Colorado until Utah could only put up 31 in Week 12.
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN | Line: Arizona State -3 | Total: 48.5
It’s time to start paying attention to Arizona State if you haven’t been. The Sun Devils are fresh off a win at Kansas State and have won three straight games since a loss at Cincinnati led coach Kenny Dillingham to call for open tryouts at kicker.
The Sun Devils are led by RB Cam Skattebo. He’s rushed 198 times for 1,098 yards and 11 TDs and has also added 31 catches for 448 yards and two scores. In addition to being ASU’s leading rusher, he’s also the team’s second-leading receiver behind Jordyn Tyson.
Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has thrived after taking over for Jeff Sims at QB. He’s averaging 4.5 yards a carry and has 21 total TDs in nine games. Eight defensive players have tallied an interception so far this season, as safety Myles Rowser leads the team in tackles. A win likely puts Arizona State a victory away from the Big 12 title game too.
BYU’s path to the Big 12 title game simply lost its margin for error with the defeat to Kansas. The Cougars are in the championship game with two more wins. But it’s easy to wonder if the luck ran out against Kansas. The Cougars have been the inverse of the Jayhawks so far this season. That Week 12 game was BYU’s fifth one-score game of the season and just the Cougars’ first loss.
The BYU offense needs to do a better job of scoring TDs against Arizona State. The Cougars had scored at last 34 points in six straight games before its 22-21 win over Utah. And now BYU has scored just 35 points combined in its last two games.
Time: 7 p.m. | TV: NBC | Line: Notre Dame -14.5 | Total: 44.5
How long can Army hang around with Notre Dame?
The Black Knights’ triple-option offense is not built to post a quick comeback. Just ask Navy. The Midshipmen were buried by turnovers in the first half of their game against the Fighting Irish earlier this season and had no chance of a comeback.
QB Bryson Daily leads the team with 174 carries for 1,062 yards and 21 scores, while RB Kanye Udoh has 856 rushing yards and nine TDs. Watch out for RB Noah Short as a big-play receiving threat too. He has 11 catches for 259 yards and three TDs.
Army gives up just over 10 points per game, though the Black Knights have also played a very manageable schedule. Before Notre Dame, the toughest opponent for Army has been East Carolina. That game came before ECU fired coach Mike Houston and reeled off three straight wins to get bowl eligible.
Notre Dame is also stingy on defense too. As Ohio State ranks first in scoring defense and Army is second, Notre Dame is third at 11.4 points per contest. So the under may be a good play.
Possessions will be at a premium as Notre Dame’s offense is also heavily run-based. The Irish are averaging six yards a carry so far this season compared to QB Riley Leonard’s 6.9 yards a pass attempt. Leonard has been a much better passer over the second half of the season, but the offense is powered by his legs along with RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN | Line: Texas A&M -2.5 | Total: 46.5
Maybe this is the week that Auburn puts a complete game together against a good SEC opponent. Oddsmakers certainly think there’s a chance of that happening.
The Tigers are 1-5 in the SEC this season and need to beat both Texas A&M and Alabama to make a bowl game. Auburn is averaging nearly two turnovers per game, though the mistakes have abated in recent weeks. After two five-turnover games in the first four weeks of the season, the Tigers haven’t turned the ball over more than once since.
But Auburn is still minus-11 in turnover margin for the season thanks to a defense that has failed to force a turnover in six games so far this season. Yet when the defense shows up, the offense can’t do its job. Just look at the Vanderbilt game. Auburn held Diego Pavia to 9-of-23 passing for 143 yards and 227 yards overall, yet the Commodores won 17-7.
Marcel Reed is still the starting QB for the Aggies since taking over for Conner Weigman against LSU. He threw for two TDs and rushed for another a week ago against New Mexico State. A&M is tied with Texas atop the SEC and needs the win to make next week’s rivalry game a semifinal for the SEC title game. If both Texas and Texas A&M win on Saturday, the winner of the regular-season finale is guaranteed a spot in the conference championship.
Other games to watch
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida (Noon, ABC): Florida is a win away from bowl eligibility and Ole Miss needs to win its final two games to likely qualify for the College Football Playoff. The Gators upset LSU at home a week ago, though freshman QB DJ Lagway could be haunted by the Ole Miss pass rush given his lack of mobility because of his hamstring injury.
No. 13 SMU at Virginia (Noon, ESPN2): Like Florida, Virginia needs one more win to qualify for the postseason and hosts a team that has playoff hopes of its own. The Mustangs can clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a win thanks to Clemson’s loss to Louisville earlier this season.
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., CBS): Are the Nittany Lions going to be on upset alert? They’re two-score favorites, but Minnesota is good to muck up a game or two and we wouldn’t be surprised if this one is bit closer than expected. Penn State needs to win its final two games and get a lot of help to advance to the Big Ten title game.
No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN): Boise State is a big favorite in this one. We only have it in this category to remind you that Ashton Jeanty has a great chance of surpassing the 2,000-yard mark on Saturday night. A four-TD night would also give Jeanty 30 rushing TDs for the season.
