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With Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, a devastating, all-out war between the Middle East’s two most dominating powers is threatening to engulf the region.
Early on Saturday morning, the Israeli Defence Forces unleashed wave after wave of missile strikes on a number of Iranian cities in response to Tehran’s ballistic missile barrage against Israel earlier this month.
Israel and Iran, which don’t share a border, have long been fighting a cloak-and-dagger conflict through proxies and subterfuge.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist groups backed by Tehran, are in ground wars with Israel.
But the two nations have always sought to avoid direct confrontation because of the cost it would endure.
The scale of Israel’s initial retaliatory strikes was not immediately clear. It can be expected that the more destructive they are, the harder the response from Iran will be.
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Israel had told its allies in the West that it would not target Iranian oil or nuclear facilities in the hope of preventing a genuine escalation.
Honours are currently even in what has become a tennis match of long-range barrages across the length of the Middle East.
Tehran acknowledged the latest salvo from Israel unleashed on Saturday morning.
The ball is in Iran’s court
State-controlled media outlets are currently attempting to downplay any potential damage.
The Islamic Republic has always threatened a “decisive, definitive, and regretful” response if the Israelis hit Iranian assets.
And now the ball is in Iran’s court.
Israel has one of the most technologically advanced militaries in the world, and is supported by the United States.
Washington currently has at least 100 soldiers on the ground in Israel, manning a THAAD air-defence system, meaning they will come into direct contact if Iran is to retaliate.
Whereas, Iran boasts the largest military in the Middle East, with an estimated 580,000 soldiers and 200,000 more reservists.
What is unknown is how many missiles and drones it has at its disposal, although the stockpiles are thought to be sizeable.
Tehran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi recently said that “anybody with knowledge or understanding” of attacks on Iran should be held responsible, in what could be seen as a veiled threat to the US.
Its mission to the United Nations has also warned “should any country render assistance to the aggressor, it shall likewise be deemed an accomplice and a legitimate target”.
Tehran has an off-ramp for this war
President Joe Biden was briefed on the strikes after Washington was notified of the Israeli strikes shortly before they started.
Pentagon officials have been planning to bolster its forces based across the region, including in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.
They will be watching closely to what Iran does next in fears of being dragged into a conflict.
The extent of the damage sustained by Iran will likely dictate its response.
However, Israel’s claim that it is only targeting military targets gives Tehran an off-ramp to de-escalate their tit-for-tat war.
What is key is Iran’s public rhetoric following the end of the Israeli military operation.
The Islamic Republic’s regime is yet to comment. State media have reported limited damage and no casualties.
This could be the hidden signal that Iran is seeking an excuse to avoid further escalation.
But if the eventual Iranian response is greater than the 181 ballistic missiles launched against Israel on October 1, that is perhaps the clearest sign yet that we’re heading to an all-out war.
