As we near the start of a new season of Knicks basketball, it’s a ripe time for previews, predictions and bold takes. Expectations for the franchise haven’t been this high in over a decade, and while it’ll take the full roster, coaching staff and front office to meet them, there’s one name who should be written in ink as the X-factor to the whole season.
That name is Julius Randle.
When Randle is on — like in his lone healthy playing month with OG Anunoby in January 2024 – he’s an All-NBA level player and one-man offensive force, averaging 24.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists on 47.9 percent shooting from the field and 36.9 percent from three in those 14 games. When he’s off, like in his past couple of postseasons, he’s a destructive blend of inefficient scoring and half-hearted defense who can let his emotions overcome him.
Beyond the pendulum of his individual performance, he’s also pivotal in the context of this Knicks team. After losing both their starter-level centers — one to free agency and one to injury — New York is lacking in secondary offensive options and frontcourt depth. And Randle, more than anybody, will need to step up to close the gaps.
Randle’s contract is also up after next season, with him having a player option for 2025-26 — raising the stakes for an already big-time year for all parties. It’s not hyperbole to suggest this Knicks season, and the decisions that could impact seasons to come, rest partly on Randle’s shoulders.
Whether fair or not, this is the reality going into the new season with a shorthanded roster, which Randle will have to help carry through a tough opening schedule coming off shoulder surgery. We saw him struggle a bit out of the gate last year after working through an ankle injury over the offseason, but bounce after the first seven games or so.
If we see a similar slow start, it’ll be on the Knicks staff and fans to have patience, and on Randle to adjust his game. His pound-the-rock style has created friction with New York’s success moving the ball around at times, so if his shot isn’t falling, it’s a prime opportunity to begin leaning more into his creation — especially with so many weapons now in the rotation.
The Knicks can overcome a rocky start, but they’ll need prime Randle in short order given the current state of their five position. With Mitchell Robinson out until potentially the new year, we should see more of Randle at that spot — an experiment the Knicks have scarcely run in the past, to mixed results.
Even when Robinson returns, Randle’s production will be a key piece in making this new rotation work. Without Isaiah Hartenstein creating from up top, spacing around Jalen Brunson will be limited, and Randle shooting 34-to-41 percent from three like in 2023 or 2021 would be a major help compared to his 30-to-31 percent clips in 2022 or last season.
Another impact of Hartenstein’s departure is a loss in offensive diversity, as the Knicks need more to hit opponents with than repeated Brunson on-ball attacks. Randle is an offensive machine unto himself, especially when making quick decisions, looking for his teammates, and taking good shots.
Beyond that, he’ll need to be more open to creating in the flow of the offense, working with Brunson like Hartenstein did by screening and running hand-offs. We saw the roots of that begin to grow last January, and it’ll need to be fully fleshed out by the playoffs if the Knicks want to compete.
The postseason has been Randle’s undoing during his Knicks career, with a shot at redemption foiled by injury last season. In the context of being the Knicks’ X-factor, the Randle discussion hinges on this point the most.
The playoffs are a different game — more physical, more tasking and more unforgiving. In 2021, Randle took the brunt of Atlanta’s defensive attack and shot below 30 percent from the field, then in 2023 he tried to power through injuries to similar results.
How he fares in 2024-25, should the Knicks get there with him healthy, may be the single largest driver of their championship hopes. We saw New York drag itself to a Game 7 in the second round of last year’s playoffs after a mountain of injuries, and in theory a healthy Randle would’ve provided enough star power to get them even further.
This will be his year to prove it.
Not to prove he’s an All-NBA talent or one of the most important Knicks of the millennium, but that he can be the missing link that brings them a championship.
