Why Warriors’ first-quarter success could be key to ending slump originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
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DENVER – Warriors coach Steve Kerr, and many others around the NBA, use the 20-game mark as a first true measure stick for their team. The Warriors are one game away from 20, having gone 12-7 in their first 19, but enter Tuesday night’s game against the Nuggets in Denver on a four-game losing streak.
Their four-game losing streak began with a strong start in San Antonio, leading the Spurs by 12 points through the first 12 minutes. The Warriors then faded down the stretch, losing a 17-point third-quarter lead before being outscored by 20 points in the fourth quarter on the first night of a back-to-back. The next game, an eight-point loss to the Brooklyn Nets, again saw a big third-quarter lead (18 points) evaporate in the fourth.
Sure, the age-old adage is “it’s not how you start, but how you finish,” though that loss to the Nets could partly be attributed to the Warriors’ slow start. The Warriors trailed 34-30 to the young, upstart Nets going into the second quarter, and have been behind after the first quarter in each of their past three losses.
Through 19 games, the Warriors have needed to dig out of a first-quarter hole eight times. They’re 3-5 when trailing after the first quarter, 8-1 when holding a lead and 1-1 going into the second all tied up.
“Different every time,” Kerr said Monday after practice at Ball Arena. “I thought our early-season slow starts were lineup related. I think some of our slow starts since have been offensive execution or shots just not going in. There have been games like Oklahoma City where we gave up 39, last game 35, so every game is different.
“You just have to find a level of consistency starting off games, and that means two-way basketball.”
Between the Spurs, Nets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns, the opposition has shot 47 percent in the first quarter over the past four games. The Warriors haven’t been able to quickly find offensive rhythm, shooting just 40.8 percent from the field in the first quarter.
That could be one of the reasons Kerr has been searching deep into his rotation to get anything going at the beginning of games. On the other hand, the in and out of players trying to establish rhythm from the get-go is one of the reasons Kerr likely is about to shorten his rotations in the immediate future.
Is establishing a defensive presence or finding flow on offense more imperative for strong starts that put the pieces into place for the rest of the game?
“I think a little bit of both. I feel like some games we start well on defense and some games we start well on offense,” Trayce Jackson-Davis said. “I just think it’s finding a happy medium with both things. Getting out, playing in transition – stuff of that nature.”
Veteran Kyle Anderson, in the 11th season of his career and first as a Warrior, believes one side of the ball carries over to the other.
Defense first, and the offense will come.
“I think great defense leads to really good offense,” Anderson said. “It’s vice versa, but I think when you’re able to get stops or push and not send guys to the line, things like that, you’re able to get good offensive possessions.”
The Warriors are a plus-8 in the first quarter this season. Good, not great. Then they crank the engine on, making their offense purr as the defense finds its vicious side. They’re an impressive plus-35 in the second quarter, and eye-popping plus-95 in the third quarter.
No team has been better than the Warriors in the third quarter, coming out of halftime and consistently burying their opponents, which made those losses to the Spurs and Nets so odd. The Warriors rank 14th in the NBA, averaging 27.7 fourth-quarter points per game, but they’ve been outscored by 23 points in the final 12 minutes this season.
Having to come back from quick deficits can be taxing. The Warriors were down by 17 points against the New Orleans Pelicans without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, yet they won by 18 points. That was also the fourth game of the season, one in which Buddy Hield scored 28 points, Lindy Waters exploded for 21 points off the bench, Brandin Podziemski had 19 and Moses Moody added 17.
Hield hasn’t scored 20 points in a month. Waters has only reached double figures three times since that win on Oct. 29. Podziemski and Moody both haven’t reached those point totals in a game since, too.
“It’s important to establish a lead, establish something in the first half, but we’ve lost the last couple games with a lead too,” Moses Moody said during Tuesday’s shootaround. “That goes to show, a first-half lead really doesn’t matter as much, rather than putting together a full game.”
A 36-year-old Steph Curry now is dealing with nagging bilateral knee pain. Draymond Green, 34, likely can’t suit up against the Nuggets because of left calf tightness. De’Anthony Melton, who looked to be Curry’s perfect complement as a two-way backcourt mate, is out for the rest of the season.
The Warriors have learned first-hand that no lead is safe in the modern NBA. First-quarter success can’t predict the outcome. What it can do is initiate an identity the Warriors are again looking to create and hold onto.
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