And then there were two. Dodgers vs. Yankees. With seven more games to win it all.
The star-studded, bicoastal World Series begins Friday at Dodger Stadium. Let’s break it down.
How they got here
Yankees:
The Yankees went big last winter by sending a haul to San Diego to acquire star slugger Juan Soto with only a year remaining on his contract, and that has paid off brilliantly. Not only did Soto combine with soon-to-be AL MVP Aaron Judge to form one of the most productive 1-2 punches we’ve ever seen in the regular season, but he also delivered the swing that sent the Yankees to the World Series with his extra-inning home run against Cleveland in ALCS Game 5.
While Soto and Judge have been the most consistent offensive performers over the course of the year, it’s Giancarlo Stanton — baseball’s active home run king — who has been especially hot this October during New York’s journey past the Royals and Guardians to the Fall Classic. A locked-in Stanton makes this Yankees lineup all the more difficult to navigate beyond Soto and Judge, and that has been on full display lately.
On the mound, the Yankees have uncovered some unlikely bullpen heroes to cover the later innings, most notably Luke Weaver. A rotation led by Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón hasn’t been overwhelmingly dominant thus far, but it has consistently pitched deep into games in a postseason in which that has been a rarity league-wide. Cole’s steady improvement down the stretch after missing the first half of the year due to an elbow injury has been a remarkable development, and now he’s in the World Series for the second time in his career looking to win his first ring, all while playing for the team he grew up rooting for. Good news for Cole: Soto is on his team this time around.
Dodgers:
Speaking of big winters, the Dodgers’ billion-dollar offseason that landed Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernandez (among others) established absurdly high expectations for L.A. entering this season. While significant injuries on both sides of the ball made it awfully difficult for this team to make a run at a truly outlandish win total, the Dodgers still finished with baseball’s best record and, in turn, home-field advantage for this whale of a World Series clash with New York.
L.A. first avenged its postseason flop against the rival Padres two years ago by storming back in the NLDS after being down two games to one and shutting out San Diego over the final two games to advance to the NLCS. That the NLCS against the Mets lasted six games was somewhat misleading with regard to how competitive it was: the Dodgers’ plus-20 run differential was one of the highest we’ve ever seen in a single postseason series. While manager Dave Roberts has needed to mix and match with his deep group of relievers to overcome inconsistent starting pitching, the Dodgers’ outstanding offense has afforded them enough of a cushion to secure the wins to get to this point. — Shusterman
Position-by-position matchups
Catcher: Will Smith (LAD) vs. Austin Wells (NYY)
Since Smith’s debut in 2019, only longtime Astros backstop Martin Maldonado has caught more postseason games than the Dodgers’ catcher. So far this month, he has started every game behind the dish for Los Angeles. That breadth of experience and Smith’s offensive ceiling (he has the second-highest OPS for a catcher since ‘19) gives him the edge over Wells, a rookie who has shined with the glove and scuffled with the bat in his first October. Wells’ sensational mustache, however, helps close the gap. Edge: Dodgers
1B: Freddie Freeman (LAD) vs. Anthony Rizzo (NYY)
If not for Freeman’s sprained right ankle, this would be a no-brainer. L.A.’s first baseman was, for the umpteenth year running, one of the best hitters in the world. But because of that bum ankle, Freeman doesn’t have an extra-base hit this October. Rizzo, too, is playing through pain. He fractured a pair of fingers on a hit-by-pitch in late September, which kept him sidelined for the first round of the playoffs. Neither player is humming at full capacity, but Freeman’s bat-to-ball skills and gradually improving ankle make him a slightly more dangerous presence. Edge: Dodgers
2B: Gavin Lux (vs. RHP)/Chris Taylor (vs. LHP) (LAD) vs. Gleyber Torres (NYY)
After a sluggish start to his free-agent year, Torres turned things around down the stretch. His job atop the Yankees’ lineup is simple: get on base for the big boys. Since being pulled from the middle of a game on Aug. 2 for not hustling, Torres has done just that, posting the 11th-best on-base percentage in baseball. Neither Lux, who was great during the second half before suffering a hip flexor injury, nor Taylor has made a significant impact yet this October. Edge: Yankees
SS: Tommy Edman (LAD) vs. Anthony Volpe (NYY)
Acquired from St. Louis at the deadline, Edman spent significantly more time in center field than shortstop for the Dodgers before Miguel Rojas went down on Sept. 25. Since then, Edman has shined as the every-day option at the infield’s most important position, winning NLCS MVP after an 11-for-27, 11-RBI performance. Volpe, famously a childhood Yankee fan, is a sensational defender, who, despite struggling to tap into his power, has been a much tougher out this month. Edge: Dodgers, but it’s closer than you might think
3B: Max Muncy (LAD) vs. Jazz Chisholm (NYY)
The stocky Dodgers third baseman put together an 11-PA on-base streak in the NLCS during which he walked eight times, homered twice and singled once. That run was perfect encapsulation of Muncy, who rarely swings but causes immense damage whenever he does. Chisholm, acquired from Miami at the trade deadline, is capable of electrifying performances but has scuffled thus far in October. The swing decisions are in line with his regular-season rates, but the gregarious Bahamian has rolled over far too many ground balls in the playoffs. That Chisholm has provided defensive stability at the hot corner is impressive considering he’d never played the position before joining the Yankees. Edge: Dodgers, but don’t be shocked if Jazz goes bananas
LF: Teoscar Hernández (LAD) vs. Alex Verdugo (NYY)
Verdugo is not a dynamic offensive player — he has just four extra-base hits since Sept. 1 — but given the rest of New York’s lineup, he doesn’t need to be. The free-agent-to-be plays a good defensive outfield in Yankee Stadium’s larger-than-normal pastures. Hernández, also a free agent at the end of the year, is the superior player. He signed a one-year pillow contract last winter with the Dodgers, which seemed superfluous at the time, but Teo has given their lineup much-needed length. Edge: Dodgers
CF: Kiké Hernández (LAD) vs. Aaron Judge (NYY)
Hernández’s numbers this October best Judge’s, but postseason heroism aside, this one isn’t close. The Yankees captain hasn’t shined in the playoffs quite yet, but he just put together one of the most sensational regular seasons of this century. Not to mention, Judge’s fingerprints as a leader are all over this Yankees run. Hernández is a heck of a ball player — he has played second and third recently as well — but Judge is a generational force. Edge: Yankees
RF: Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Juan Soto (NYY)
Beachfront or mountaintop, beer or tacos — there’s no bad answer here, either. These are two of the best players of this era, full stop. Betts started this postseason with a mini-slump but has gotten hot since the middle of the NLDS. His presence behind Ohtani in the lineup is important when teams opt to pitch around the Japanese superstar. For pitchers, Soto is the equivalent of a bad night’s sleep: He makes everything more stressful. Any matchup with him is an exhausting battle. Greatness, for him, feels perpetually inevitable, as he proved with his ALCS-clinching homer in Game 5. Edge: Yankees
DH: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)
Playoff G is a real thing. Stanton captured ALCS MVP honors by clobbering four homers in five games against Cleveland. There’s no reason to expect his heater to end now, considering L.A.’s pitching isn’t much better. It’s worth remembering that Stanton had the fourth-most plate appearances without a World Series appearance among active players; this is a long time coming. Ohtani, on the other hand, is the best player in the world navigating the postseason for the first time in his career. He has settled in nicely, taking his walks while finding moments to pounce. Stanton is scorching, but Ohtani is singular. Edge: Dodgers
Rotation: Jack Flaherty/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Walker Buehler/Johnny Wholestaff (LAD) vs. Gerrit Cole/Carlos Rodón/Clarke Schmidt/Luis Gil (NYY)
A strategic X-factor to keep in mind here is whether New York opts to throw Cole in Games 1, 4 and 7. Either way, the Yankees have the better starting pitching, largely due to the infirmary of arms the Dodgers have on the shelf. Flaherty made two NLCS starts, one great and one awful. Yamamoto and Buehler each threw well once but didn’t work particularly deep. Rodón and Schmidt are more likely to give their club more length. But Cole? Cole is the only true difference-maker in the mix here. Edge: Yankees — Mintz
Read more: Sizing up the Dodgers’ and Yankees’ pitching strategies before Game 1
Manager matchup
With an evenly matched World Series in so many areas, it can be easy to overlook the top step of each dugout as an area on which this matchup could swing. Roberts has outmanaged Padres manager Mike Shildt and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza to get to this point, while Yankees skipper Aaron Boone held his own against Guardians skipper Stephen Vogt. Boone and Roberts are similar in many ways. While Roberts has a World Series title and multiple appearances, both are routinely criticized despite extremely successful track records.
This World Series will have several moves resting on each of their shoulders, from the pitching decisions to the matchups offensively and even defensive alignments. But Roberts has done this his entire career and hasn’t been fazed by being down in a series or on the brink of elimination this postseason. Boone hasn’t had his back against the wall yet this October and will face his toughest managerial matchup against L.A. — Dorsey
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How they win
Yankees:
Stanton, Soto and Judge account for 10 of New York’s 13 home runs and 25 of the team’s 38 runs driven in this month, which can be interpreted as a good or a bad thing. But if the three mega-stars in the middle of the lineup keep swinging it to their potential — and we haven’t seen Judge even close to locked in yet — then the Dodgers’ pitching staff, however it’s deployed, is going to have a tough time. More encouraging for New York has been the stellar form of Gleyber Torres as the leadoff man, the quality at-bats from Anthony Rizzo since he rejoined the roster and the markedly improved plate discipline from young shortstop Anthony Volpe.
There’s certainly a version of this series that turns into an all out slugfest, and down-lineup contributions will be paramount if New York is going to keep up with a Dodgers offense that has looked virtually unstoppable for stretches this postseason. At the same time, the Yankees have the personnel to shut down any lineup if Cole and Rodón are at their best. And if Weaver and Boone’s three other most trusted relievers (Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Tim Hill) can continue to secure outs in high leverage — not to mention the recent promising outings from Mark Leiter Jr. and Jake Cousins — New York might have the arms to turn this series into something closer to what we saw against Cleveland. Having Cole available for two, perhaps even three, starts in this series could be massively important.
Dodgers:
With each successive injury to the Dodgers’ pitching staff in the second half of the season, it became increasingly more difficult to fathom that this team would be in position to go on a deep postseason run. But if any team was going to be able to simply outscore its shortcomings on the mound, it’s this one — and that has been on full display over the past six weeks or so, and certainly in the NLCS vs. New York. Roberts has been masterful in his bullpen management and has the requisite number of relievers to attack the matchups as they present themselves. That dynamic will become all the more crucial in navigating against a lineup such as the Yankees’.
Still, the most obvious path to victory for L.A. involves the continued onslaught of slugging up and down the lineup, the kind that could meaningfully tax the Yankees’ pitching staff in a way it simply wasn’t against the Royals or Guardians. A dominant start from Jack Flaherty or Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Walker Buehler would go a long way, sure, but the Dodgers have already shown that they can win by piecing it together after an abbreviated start. The bats just need to keep on cooking. — Shusterman
How they lose
Yankees:
The Yankees have star power, cache and notoriety. But their baseball IQ has not been high this postseason. They aren’t smart on the bases, and defensively, they leave a lot to be desired at times. Giving this Dodgers offense extra outs is a recipe for disaster, especially if it means turning the lineup over for the likes of Shohei Ohtani and a red-hot Mookie Betts. Also, similarly to the Dodgers, if the Yankees’ rotation falters, it could expose some vulnerabilities in their bullpen.
Dodgers:
The Dodgers are four wins away from a World Series championship with a starting rotation that is about as consistent as a teenager’s emotions. This one is pretty simple: L.A.’s demise comes through the collapse of a rotation put together with smoke and mirrors. Yamamoto can’t get past 75 pitches, Flaherty’s velocity continues to dip, and Buehler’s inconsistencies pop back up, leading Roberts to turn to his bullpen early and often. And the chain reaction of early bullpen usage leading into a bullpen game crushes the Dodgers against a confident Yankees lineup. — Dorsey
Series predictions
Dodgers in seven:
I’ve gone back and forth about this from the moment this matchup was set, and I expect to change my mind another dozen times before first pitch on Friday, but I lean toward the Dodgers and home-field advantage here, despite New York’s perceived edge in starting pitching and similar amount of offensive firepower. While I strongly disagree with the notion that the Yankees had some sort of “easy” path to the World Series, I do think that the magnitude of talent they face in the Dodgers is on another level from what they’ve seen so far this month — and to be clear, that’s more a commentary on L.A. than it is anything about Kansas City or Cleveland. This is a toss-up for me because picking against Juan Soto seems foolish, but I’ll take the Dodgers ever so slightly. — Shusterman
Yankees in seven:
This should be a classic. While the Dodgers have a slight edge around the diamond when it comes to position-player talent, the Yankees’ starting pitching, particularly Gerrit Cole, feels like a difference-maker. New York’s arms can work deeper into games, allowing Boone to preserve his pen more. Over a long series, I think that will tip the scales. — Mintz
Dodgers in seven:
Each of these teams has more than one superstar who can change a game and even the series with one swing. And it will probably happen for both clubs at least once in the series, maybe more than that. I don’t trust the Dodgers’ rotation and haven’t this entire postseason, yet even with my doubts and mixed results, they’re just four wins away from winning it all. The Yankees are going to give the Dodgers everything they can handle, and maybe it’ll be enough. But this Dodgers team is more resilient than in years past, and they look like a team on a mission. When things get tough in this series, L.A. will be mentally prepared to handle it. — Dorsey
