The Yankees were heavily rumored to be interested in signing Christian Walker to fill their void at first base, but Walker agreed to a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros on Friday.
They didn’t wait long to find a “replacement.”
Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, Goldschmidt will get a one-year, $12.5 million contract to leave the Cardinals and head to New York.
Let’s take a look at what the Yankees are getting in Goldschmidt, and whether or not he’s still a viable fantasy option.
What kind of season did Goldschmidt have in 2024?
First, let’s remind everyone that Goldschmidt had been one of the most productive hitters in baseball coming into the 2024 season, and had done it for a decade for the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. He’s finished third or higher in MVP voting four times, and took home the award in 2021. In his 14 seasons, he’s hit 362 homers, forged an OPS of .892, won four Gold Gloves, and will be enshrined in Cooperstown whenever he hangs up the cleats.
But unfortunately, 2024 was not the best season for Goldschmidt. In fact, it was pretty easily his worst with a slash of .245/.304/.414. His .716 OPS was the lowest of his career, and his OPS+ of 98 was the first time he’d posted a below-average figure in that metric (100 is average). Simply put, there’s a reason why Goldschmidt hit the free agent market, and didn’t get anywhere near Walker’s despite his impressive accolades.
What went wrong for Goldschmidt last year?
Goldschmidt has been a patient hitter throughout his career, as he’s walked in 12.7 percent of his plate appearances; well above the 8.4 percent average in that time frame. That patience didn’t show up in 2024, however, as he drew just 47 free passes in 654 plate appearances; a walk-rate of 7.2 percent that placed him in the bottom 38th percentile of qualified hitters.
Goldschmidt has always been a player who has struck out a ton, and 2024 wasn’t an exception. He fanned in 26.5 percent of his plate appearances, and he swung and missed an unhealthy 27.4 percent of the time. It’s one thing to not put the ball in play, but when you’re not putting the ball in play and you’re not generating free passes, it’s another level of trouble.
Many hitters of Goldschmidt’s age start to struggle with velocity, but at least in 2024, it was the slower stuff that gave him trouble; in this case the sweeper and change-ups. Against the former, Goldschmidt had an average of just .182 with a .309 slugging percentage, and against the latter those numbers dropped to .179 and .286.
Are there reasons to believe he can be better in 2025 based on the metrics?
Despite those ugly numbers, the answer is a resounding yes.
When Goldschmidt made contact, he hit the ball hard. He was among the league leaders in hard-hit percentage, as it qualified as that kind of contact 49.6 percent of the time. He was in the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity at 91.2 mph, and he ranked well above-average in metrics like barrel rate (10.2 percent), expected slugging (.450), and expected weight on-base average or xwOBA (.329). He still generates solid bat speed, so despite his disappointing results last summer, it doesn’t appear to be a case of diminishing skills, or at the very least not a case of rapid deterioration.
It’s also worth mentioning that Goldschmidt was much better in the second half of the season. At the end of June, he was slashing an abhorrent .225/.294/.361 over a sample of 80 games. From July 1 on, that number improved to .269/.310/.474. That’s still not anywhere close to the numbers we’ve grown to except from the product of Texas State, but obviously a vast improvement over the final 74 contests.
And on top of that, Goldschmidt has remained a stolen base threat even as he exits his prime. Relatively speaking, of course. He stole 11 bases last season for the second consecutive campaign, and he wasn’t caught in any of his theft attempts last year. It’s not an elite number, but getting double digit stolen bases from your first baseman doesn’t hurt.
Where does Goldschmidt project to hit in the Yankees’ lineup?
Obviously, Goldschmidt is going to play everyday even if his contract doesn’t make him one of the highest paid first baseman nor anywhere close. The question is where he’s going to hit in the New York starting nine. That will matter for fantasy, as the difference between being able to be driven in by or drive in players like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton compared to hitting at the bottom of a good — but not great — New York lineup. He should hit in the middle of the order against southpaws, but there’s a chance he might hit a little later against righties to begin the year; something to keep in mind with RBI and runs scored being important figures.
Are you betting on a Goldschmidt bounce back?
I am.
Now, I’m not betting on a Goldschmidt bounce back to his MVP levels, I think that’d be foolish for a player that will turn 38 next October. But I am betting on him being substantially better than his 2024 campaign, which admittedly is faint praise. He simply made too much hard contact last year for me to believe he’s “done” as a relevant player, and there’s too much track record of him being a patient hitter to think that he won’t be able to significantly improve the on-base percentage on top of the batting average and slugging mark.
Add in the lineup fit and home park, and I would be willing to bet on Goldschmidt being a top 8-12 first baseman in 2025, and likely one who finishes as a Top 100 player when all is said and done.
